featuring Team 1200's Phil Melanson
When it comes to the U.S. College Football season, we're at a point now where we know what teams are capable of and more importantly, what teams are in desperation mode to win and keep their standings in the BCS to give themselves the best chance at the national championship game.
This Saturday, I see three ranked teams that are not only favoured to win, but have to win in order to stay relevant when it comes to the BCS standings. Some might say that the pressure of having to win every single game might force some of these teams to crack, and there's something to that, but with the opponents that my chosen teams have, they may crack under the pressure and still come out ahead.
Arizona Wildcats (-9) vs. UCLA Bruins
There was a lot of talk of what this team from Los Angeles could be capable of after an upset win over Texas a few weeks ago. All that talk has changed after the Bruins have dropped to 3-4 and the Longhorns have lost a couple of more times since then. Meanwhile, everything is rosy in the world of the Wildcats as they've picked up 6 wins out of a possible 7 to start the campaign.
The big problem I see here is the UCLA pass offence with their backup quarterback going up against the Arizona defence. UCLA is 117th in the country in passing offence, while the Wildcats have the best defence in the Pac-10 this season.
Auburn Tigers (-7) vs. Mississippi Rebels
The BCS standings have the Tigers at the top of the mountain and in prime position to make it to the National Championship. It's a double-edged sword to be in that spot because on one side, Auburn knows now that all they have to do is win out and they're in. There's no concern about being undefeated and still being on the outside looking in. On the other hand, the thought of one slip-up possibly costing them that number one spot might spook some of their players.
Regardless, they may be able to get away with a couple of slip-ups against a 3-4 Ole Miss team that is just happy to keep it close against ranked opponents. Ole Miss has the 10-ranked defence in the SEC and Auburn has ran for over 300 yards a game in the last four contests against SEC opposition.
Utah Utes (-7) vs. Air Force Falcons
Utah is used to being in this terrible position every single season. They can win every single game and will still most likely not be a part of the national championship game. However, the Utes have proved year-in and year-out that they can thrive in these kind of spots despite knowing that it could all for not.
The key to this game will be running and how well each team can do against the other. The Falcons are all about running with their triple-option offence as they lead the nation in running yards per game at 326.5. However, the Utes have the sixth-best running defence in the country. On the other side, the Utes have scored almost 50 points a game and take on a Falcons run defence that gives up about 200 yards rushing per game.
The NHL offers up its usual large assortment of games on a Thursday night and today's theme will be about value. Actually, a lot of times, the theme is going to be about value. It's not always about choosing who you feel is going to win. Let me explain if you're scratching your head.
Very often, it's about finding a team that has a good chance to win and pays well at the same time. You should think about it the same way you would choose a horse at the track or pick a stock on the TSE. In both cases, you want to find a proven winner, but that winner also has to pay enough money to you to justify risking yourself for the payout.
Phoenix Coyotes vs. Detroit Red Wings (-1.5, +170)
Nothing is going right lately for Phoenix after starting their 2010 campaign in Prague. It's clear that the travel to Europe, followed by the travel back to the West Coast, then the travel for a road trip on the East Coast, has caught up to them. They looked slow and sluggish in a 5-2 loss to Ottawa on Tuesday and are looking to avoid losing their fourth in a row.
Unfortunately, they take on the Detroit Red Wings as they've started off the season at 5-1-1. The stats for this series are completely one-sided in favour of the Wings over the last 4 years. In their last 17 meetings, Detroit leads the series 14-1-2 with a home record of 7-0-1. The problem is that you get no value for them to win straight up, but you can just about triple your money to bet on them winning by 2 goals or more. We'll take the risk.
Washington Capitals (-1.5, +250) vs. Minnesota Wild
If you were just looking at this game on paper, who would you favour? 100 out of 100 would have said the Washington Capitals despite the fact that they're on the road. The Caps are coming off a shutout last night in Carolina and the Wild are looking to avoid losing their third in a row. Everything points to a Caps win, but the value for a single goal victory is not enough. But if you choose them to win by 2 goals or more, you can more than triple your money.
Los Angeles Kings (+115) vs. Dallas Stars
Again, I like the value here for a team that was considered a threat to win the Western Conference vs. a team that was supposed to be near the bottom of the Western Conference standings. The Stars got off to a nice start at 5-1, but have come back down to earth a little by dropping two in a row.
Meanwhile, the Kings have quietly got off to a 6-3 start and Jonathan Quick is playing so well in goal for L.A. compiling a 5-1 record and a 1.95 GAA. I may have been tempted to make it a trifecta and take the Kings by 2 or more, but it's not offered where I'm looking. I still like the value though for the single goal victory.
Got some great response yesterday to the first NBA themed post of the new season, so I decided to keep it going for one more day. I want to get back into more of the hockey breakdowns since it's been a week since I went perfect, but it's always going to be about what you guys want to read about.
Quick Aside: I thought the Miami Heat looked like a bunch of individuals in Boston. Actually, more like a bunch of guys that just met that night to play pick-up basketball. At times, it was ugly. Those looking for a 70-75 win season out of the Heat could not have liked what they saw last night from the newest Big 3.
Anyways, I gave you four teams yesterday to look out for in the "total regular season wins" category. Today, I wanted to give you four darkhorse teams that will do some damage in their respective conferences, but are being forgotten by NBA viewers. I don't think these teams get to the NBA finals, but it's wrong to count them out as well.
1) Milwaukee Bucks
They have no real superstars to speak of, but what this team does offer is incredible depth through most of the roster. A lot of experts thought this team would make a good run in the playoffs a year ago, but those predictions were made before Andrew Bogut went down with his gruesome, season-ending injury. However, Bogut is back alongside Brandon Jennings and the duo will help Milwaukee compete against Chicago for the Central Division crown.
2) Portland Trail Blazers
It's easy to get mixed up in the shuffle of amazing teams in the Western Conference, but it floors me that the Trail Blazers haven't received any talk about winning the West considering the amount of talent they can put out on the floor. All they have to do is find a way to stay relatively healthy and have coach Nate McMillan divide the minutes amongst a ton of talented players to keep them all happy. If they can do these two things, they will be a tough out come playoff time.
3) San Antonio Spurs
We all know the jokes about this team's average age being comparable to the average age of tenants in a retirement community, but it doesn't mean that they can't win their share of ball games. Tim Duncan doesn't have the skills that he used to, but his savvy and experience will still make him dominant on some nights. Manu Ginobli and Tony Parker still make up one of the better guard duos in the game.
4) Dallas Mavericks
It's been the same story for the Mavs for a decade now. Always good enough in the regular season to get themselves into the playoffs, then nothing left in the tank once the important games start. Much like the Spurs, the core of this team is aging and rapidly, but a team led by Dirk Nowitski and Jason Kidd are still going to win a lot of ball games.
Was Mark Cuban able to get all the right pieces in place this time around? Only time will tell, but if the Lakers happen to drop off and fall short of their goal of a three-peat, the Mavs are as good as anyone in the West to possibly take advantage.
The NBA season tips off tonight and all the anticipation of what the Big 3 in Miami can do will end as they play in the very first game of the 2010-2011 schedule against the Boston Celtics. I think this can be an unbelievable basketball team down the road, but with such a weak bench for this season, I think the Heat come up short in their quest to win it all.
I wanted to look at the "total regular season wins" over/under category today in breaking down how 4 teams are going to do. I believe three of these teams will have better than expected seasons and the team from the Great White North is going to be even worse than the Toronto media would have you believe. We'll start with the winners first...
Boston Celtics (Over 54.5 wins - +110)
Only a few years ago, this franchise started the trend of having a Big 3 come together with the common goal of winning a championship. Flash forward to the present and all the talk out of Beantown now is that Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen are over the hill.
This may be true, but the big thing I liked about their off-season was the additions of Shaquille O'Neal and Jermaine O'Neal to solidify the depth inside. At times, it seemed as though Kendrick Perkins was left to do all the tough work in the paint by himself. Combine the added depth with the idea that their division is still so weak and you get a team that should win more than 54 times.
Phoenix Suns (Over 41.5 wins - +105)
I know, Steve Nash talked about his team in a negative way when asked about the idea of the Suns being a playoff team, but this isn't about whether they'll make the playoffs. It's about whether they can win 42 games or more. Amare Stoudamire is gone, but Steve Nash leads a group of players that all have the same traits of not being flashy, but always bringing steady contributions.
Utah Jazz (Over 49.5 wins - EVEN)
Everyone is looking to the Jazz to have a down year after Carlos Boozer left to go to Chicago, but don't discount the addition of Al Jefferson to replace him. Plus, having one of the best point guards in the game in Deron Williams and one of the best coaches in the game in Jerry Sloan will always allow for this team to be better than competitive.
Toronto Raptors (Under 26.5 wins - -120)
I hope Raptors fans are emotionally ready for what should be a trainwreck of a season. This roster is being compared by some to their expansion season, but during that first year, at least the excitement of having NBA basketball in their city was enough to allow for them to swallow the constant losing.
Not this time around. The city of Toronto is used to having an NBA team and won't stomach what looks to be more like a EuroLeague team. Simply put: Where are they going to get scoring from if Bosh and Turkoglu are gone? Last in the Eastern Conference is a distinct possibility and last overall wouldn't be surprising either.
Not a lot of games to choose from on a quiet Monday in the sports world and quite frankly, after my prognostication over the weekend, I think I need a break from the breakdowns. Who knew that the Browns special teams would put the Saints into submission or that the Bills would score 34 points against the Ravens’ defense? I guess it’s my job to know, but I’m comforted in knowing that I wasn’t the only one that failed to see these two games unfolding the way that they did.
I did want to write about some of the good/bad surprises in the NHL so far as many teams hit 10 games played this week. I did this about a week into the season and just wanted to update myself, but I also wanted to write about a certain team that just continues to get the job done despite so many hurdles both on and off the ice. It’s very easy to cheer for this team and Sens fans could only wish that the roster in front of them would show the same kind of energy/urgency that this group does night after night.
Good
Nashville Predators
I remember distinctly writing that this team has a middle-of-the-road roster and could struggle, but may not because of having a great equalizer in head coach Barry Trotz. He’s done a masterful job at getting this team to be at the top of the NHL standings after 8 games by picking up 13 points. This being done in a division that includes Chicago and Detroit and every team is over .500, even Columbus.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Many people were on the Steve Yzerman bandwagon after owner Jeff Vinnik brought him in to be the GM of the hockey club. I was one of the few that said that I would wait to give my praise until after I saw some results. Well, tops in the Eastern Conference so far is enough for me to start giving credit where due. Along with new head coach Guy Boucher, they’ve turned a bottom-feeder into a certain playoff contender.
Bad
New Jersey Devils
There’s already chatter amongst the media that head coach John MacLean is on the hot seat in Jersey after the team is off to a 2-6-1 start. It didn’t help that he benched 100 million dollar man Ilya Kovalchuk for a game only to see his team lose 6-1 to Buffalo. The Devils have scored 15 goals in 9 games and look anything but a Stanley Cup contender
Ottawa Senators
I was going to leave them off the list ‘cause I hear so much about their poor play already, but how can you not have them in the “bad” category? This team is void of any life, energy or urgency right now and no one can figure out why. Head coach Cory Clouston is really going to earn his pay if he can get this group to turn it around quickly in three games this week at home.
This may be the toughest week to predict so far this season as a lot of games feature teams of equal talent level. The Patriots/Chargers game presents two teams that were both predicted to be AFC Champions. The Redskins/Bears feature two teams that make bettors pull their hair out with their inconsistency. Even the Rams/Buccaneers game is evenly matched as both teams have overachieved as both were supposed to be battling each other to see who was a worse football team.
However, there are three mismatches today that we’ll look to put money on where the favourites are Super Bowl contenders. I’ll always be willing to wager on teams that have proven themselves. If I’m successful, of course I’m happy, but if they fail, then you just have to consider it unlucky. I wouldn’t get the same feeling of unluckiness if I bet on a team like the Buffalo Bills or Cleveland Browns. There’s nothing more frustrating to me than putting my money on a bottom-feeder and losing because you realized that you over-thought the situation. Anyways, onto the picks…
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) vs. Miami Dolphins
There was worry that the return of Ben Roethlisberger may cause some loss in momentum for the Steelers after getting off to such a good start. Those fears proved to be fruitless as the Steelers dominated the Browns in winning 28-10. After a shaky first half, Roethlisberger found his rhythm again and threw three touchdown passes.
I expect it to be a closer game, but I also expect the same game plan to be successful for the Steelers. You know what they’re going to do. They’ll establish the run game with Rashard Mendenhall, then they’ll open up a bit with Roethlisberger’s passing and by the fourth, they’ll have grinded out the Dolphins defense into submission.
Cleveland Browns vs. New Orleans Saints (-14)
Much was made of the Saints’ inability to put up points on the board like they were able to last season. The biggest problem has been injuries at the running back spot with Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas both out for extended periods of time. But Chris Ivory emerged last week to give the Saints a running attack they haven’t had all year.
With the Saints being a multi-dimensional offence again, the Browns could be in for a long day. Colt McCoy showed pretty well in his debut last week against the Steelers, but he can only do so much as an inexperienced rookie. The Browns should be handing the ball off to Peyton Hillis a lot, but the Saints’ run defense is much better than given credit for.
Buffalo Bills vs. Baltimore Ravens (-14)
Everyone knows how much I rag on my Bills, but I could be ragging on them even more after today’s “effort” against Baltimore. You know a team has struggled on defense badly when the only thing the coach can think of doing to adjust is to change the system completely. The Bills decided after the bye week to change from a 3-4 to a traditional 4-3. Oh the horror!
They’ll also be taking a ticked-off Ravens team that gave away a 10-point lead to the Patriots in losing last week. The Ravens will look to rebound with a win as they head into their bye week.
I’ve been waiting so long for this match-up to finally happen. Over the last 12-18 months, Cain Velasquez has been touted as the can’t-miss prospect to work his way through the heavyweight division and eventually be the ultimate challenger for Brock Lesnar. Velazquez all proved to all the experts that he was worth the hype and he finally gets his shot at the strap tonight in Anaheim in the main event of UFC 121.
I would normally give you a winner and what I would bet on, but to me, this fight has too many variables that go either one way or the other. It’s a fight that I’m just going to enjoy because of the competition and because I have a pick on the line. So, I decided that we should take a quick look on a couple of ways in which both guys will choose to try and win the fight.
Brock Lesnar
Brock will go back to what has got him to the dance in the first place. He’ll definitely look to use his superior wrestling skills, take him to the ground and use that massive 265 pound frame to ground and pound him to a victory. The strength and size advantage for Brock is something that just can’t be overlooked.
He’ll also want to do this because we’ve never seen Velazquez in a spot where he has to defend on his back for an extended period of time. The experience factor will be big as well. How often in Velazquez’s life has he been in championship moments? The count is probably not as high as it would be for Lesnar since Brock has won championships in NCAA wrestling and UFC. I’ll leave it up to you to decide if you want to count WWE moments as well.
Cain Velazquez
Everyone is pointing to his superior striking and stand-up game as his ticket to winning the championship and those people are not wrong, but I think the biggest aspect to look at will be conditioning. No one has been able to work Lesnar into the later rounds before. The only guy in Brock's MMA career to force him to the distance was Heath Herring in a completely one-sided fight. If Cain can somehow survive the first couple of rounds, we’ll find out the true conditioning of Brock Lesnar.
For Velazquez, it’s simple. He has to avoid the takedown at all costs and punish Brock when he misses his shoot attempts. Lesnar’s gameplan is no secret and I’m sure that Cain has been working on takedown defence, but a regular training partner is just not the same as the UFC heavyweight champion.
Alright, I told you that I wasn’t going to pick a winner, but I can’t resist. My gut says that Lesnar is just too much of a beast for Velazquez to handle. I think we’re going to see a repeat of Brock's other fights in which he takes Velazquez down, uses his size to neutralize and eventually gets the ground-and-pound TKO in the third round.
We nailed the three-game parlay yesterday on NHL hockey, but I wanted to take a day off from that to focus on college football. By the way, I nailed the three-game parlay on last week’s college football as well, but I’ve always looked at hockey as such a crapshoot, so that’s why I was so excited about last night as opposed to last week. Let’s take a look at Saturday’s games…
Syracuse vs. West Virginia (-14)
Just looking at the records of these two teams, it would look like an evenly-matched contest, but it really isn’t. The 5-1 record of the Mountaineers is legit because of the opposition put in front of them. The Orangemen’s 4-2 record is somewhat fraudulent since two of their wins came against D-II schools and a third came against an Akron team with an 0-7 record on the year.
In three tries against legit division I schools, they’re 1-2 with the only win coming against South Florida. The other two losses to Washington and Pittsburgh were by three touchdowns or more. Also, West Virginia has the fifth-best defense in the country while the Orangemen are having a ton of problems with a shaky offence.
Iowa State vs. Texas (-21)
It’s been a rough couple of weeks for the Iowa State Cyclones after losses by 41 and 52 and now they take on a frustrated Texas team that is looking to get some respect after a couple of losses early into the 2010 campaign. It certainly didn’t help Iowa State’s chances after the Longhorns got themselves a huge victory against Nebraska last week.
The biggest thing to look at is Iowa State’s repeated failures against teams in the Top 25. In three games against ranked opponents this season, they’ve lost by an average of 41 points. Texas might also catch Iowa State looking ahead to next week when they finally have a chance to play a winnable game. Texas will represent the third ranked team in a row for Iowa State.
LSU vs. Auburn (-6)
Is there a team that has more lives than the boys from the Bayou? I’m not sure I’ve seen a team that is so shaky despite the fact that they’re 7-0 and ranked 6th in the country. They needed a last-second penalty for too many men by Tennessee to win and they struggled to beat McNeese State last week because of their inept offence.
Meanwhile, Auburn is coming off a 65 point performance in beating Arkansas and looking to keep up their 40 point per game average. While LSU is having trouble with their two quarterback system and barely getting completions, Auburn is having no problems with their Heisman candidate Cam Newton. The Tigers can only get away with shaky play for so long before it comes back to bite them.
Upset Special: Nebraska vs. Oklahoma State (+6)
Nebraska was wounded by Texas and now must deal with a tough road game in Stillwater. The Cowboys could be catching the Huskers at the absolute right time.
This whole season, the New York Yankees and Philadelphia Phillies have been linked together despite the fact that they’re in separate leagues. Both teams have a ton of talent and have won a championship in the last couple of years. But the main reason for the linkage was due to the projections that they were to face each other in the World Series.
To their credit, both teams had done their respective jobs by winning their divisions and getting through their opening rounds in dominating fashion. The Phillies used the strength of their pitching to get them past Cincinnati in a clean sweep, while the Yankees used their brute force and menacing lineup in the late
innings of every game to humiliate Minnesota in a clean sweep.
With so many similarities and comparisons between the two teams, isn’t it a little freaky to see that both teams are struggling with the same affliction that has put them in major danger of losing out on a chance at the World Series? At a time when things tend to get a little colder on the East Coast, the Phillies and Yankees weren’t counting on their bats to go ice cold as well.
People are looking for reasons as to why the Yankees are losing to the Texas Rangers and why the Phillies are losing to the Giants despite having arguably the best trio of pitchers on one team that the game has ever seen. They don’t have to look far. It’s right in front of their face. The batters for these two teams simply aren’t getting the job done.
The Yankees were certainly counting on their bats to get them through to the final round. They’ve counted on them all year since the pitching staff has been so hit-or-miss. But 18 runs in 5 games are just simply not enough. As crazy as this seems, I think the Yankee coaching staff is OK with the idea that their pitchers have given up 32 runs in 5 games. It was to be expected and would have been accepted provided that the Yankee hitters did their job. They have not.
On the other side, the Phillies didn’t even need to score that many runs because their top three pitchers would be able to keep the Giants’ run total down. And for the most part, they have by only allowing 14 runs in the first 4 games. But when the offence also only scores 14, they allow themselves to be subject to this kind of danger.
We must give credit to the Giants pitching staff as well because they have some live arms and serious talent, but the talk heading into the series was that the Phillies would ultimately prevail because they would have the major edge in offence.
They were linked because they were supposed to battle for the World Series. But with each facing 3-1 deficits, the odds say that both will be linked in the off-season by the idea that the 2010 World Series championship was one that got away from them.
It’s a busy night in the NHL with 11 games to sort through tonight. You would think that I would have plenty of opportunities to find good value in trying to pick a good-paying winner. Well, it didn’t quite work out that way. The odds-makers in Vegas have had enough time now to dissect every single team and get a good sense of each team’s strengths and weaknesses.
Notice how I mentioned the idea of good value in the first sentence. It’s really a crapshoot on calling a winner in most hockey games. Especially with the introduction of the shootout to create a winner, I just don’t see a point to go after the “sure bet” because in the long run, you won’t come out ahead. So, all year long, I’m going to be taking chances with underdogs based on value. You’ll see what I’m talking about in a second.
New York Rangers (+135) vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
Here’s a perfect example of taking a stab at value for a straight-up win. Most of the time, you’ll find the odds for hockey games will be in the pick-‘em range. Tonight’s action with 11 games only offers up 4 teams that are bigger underdogs than +105. This is Vegas telling you that these games are basically coin-flips. Hell, the odds on the coin toss at the Super Bowl are the same every year, -105 for both sides.
The Leafs are over-valued due to their hot start. If the projections for this team are correct, eventually there will have to be a drop-off in their play. With the Leafs a heavy favourite tonight, I think it’s a good idea to try and be ahead of the curve and get some value in taking the opposition while the Leafs still have the aura of an indestructible force.
Dallas Stars (+105) vs. Florida Panthers
Nobody expected the Stars to have as good of a start as they’ve had by going 4-1. They would be 5-0 if they knew how to stop the opposition on the penalty kill. Luckily, they take on an under-talented Panthers team that has been terrible on the power play to start the season.
However, I’m not taking the Stars here because of the penalty kill situation. Much like the Rangers, I’m taking them here on the strength of their value. Here’s a perfect example of the power of perception. The Leafs are off to a 4-0-1 start with 9 points and are -155 to win tonight. The Stars are 4-1 with 8 points to start the year and are a slight underdog to a team that’s 2-2.
Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Nashville Predators (Over 5.5 +105)
This pick is very much reliant on the Penguins getting an early lead and forcing the Preds to open up offensively. If the first period has no scoring or 1 goal, this pick is pretty much toast. But I like how the Penguins have found a rhythm in their last couple of games. Watch out for Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin because they’re starting to heat up.
13 games played on Sunday and one more in just a couple of hours. Let’s break them all down in 500 words, shall we? First, a quick thought on the Titans/Jags game tonight. Look for a hard-fought and punishing game between two teams that will look to establish the run game with their superstars. Chris Johnson is the focal point of the Titans offence and Maurice Jones-Drew stirs the drink for Jacksonville. I wouldn’t want to pick a winner, but with the over/under at 45, I would stick with the under.
Eagles beat Falcons 31-17
Give a lot of credit to Kevin Kolb for a great performance. Andy Reid has got a great problem on his hands because whether it’s Kolb or Michael Vick, the starting quarterback has gotten the job done every single week. Kolb decimated the Falcons pass defense.
Steelers win over Browns in Big Ben’s return
No need to worry about problems with rust for Big Ben. After a shaky first half, Roethlisberger found his rhythm and threw three touchdown passes. Makes you wonder how we doubted this team in pre-season.
Seattle edges Chicago
Don’t ask me what either of these teams are going to do from week to week, but the pickup of Marshawn Lynch by the Seahawks gave them a nice 1-2 punch at the running back spot with Justin Forsett.
Miami wins in OT over Green Bay
Considering how banged up the Packers were for this game and are for the near future, this could be the start of some bleak times in Green Bay. A win here would have been huge for confidence, but the loss reminds them how difficult it will be for them to win without premier players.
Giants beat Lions
They are a quiet team at 4-2. If you polled 100 NFL fans that didn’t know what their record was, I bet that over half would classify them as under .500. They’re back into the national spotlight thanks to a game in Dallas next week.
Saints thump Bucs
I like it when a game goes exactly how you drew it up in a preview. I wrote that the Saints had too much talent for the Bucs to handle and a 25 point beating proved me right. They just have to do that consistently now.
Rams shock Chargers
Upset of the week as the Rams get their biggest win in recent memory and the Chargers have one of their more embarrassing losses in recent memory. There’s too much talent in San Diego for them to be this bad. Something needs to change immediately.
Houston completes comeback over Kansas City
Much like the Giants, a lot of people would be surprised to see the Texans at 4-2. What a gutsy comeback win for this club. It’s these types of wins that allow a team to be in the playoffs. Could this finally be the year? It remains to be seen because the rest of their schedule is still very difficult.
New England squeaks out win against Baltimore
Everyone was curious about how Bill Belichick was going to adjust to life without Randy Moss. After a less-than-stellar 3 quarters, the Patriots found a way to come from 10 down in the fourth to force OT. They eventually squeaked it out with a field goal in OT. We need to give constant credit to a hell of a coach and a great leader in Tom Brady.
San Fran finally wins first against Oakland
Alex Smith leads the Niners to win number one on the season, but how many Niners fans want him to continue as the starting quarterback? Not many. He still missed a lot of easy throws and made a lot of bad decisions, but got away with them because they were taking on the Oakland Raiders.
Jets win in final minutes against Broncos
Good effort from the Broncos against a rugged Jets team, but they just don’t have the talent in place to win these tight games at the end. The Jets pulling it out with less than 2 minutes to go show why they’re a Super Bowl contender and why the Broncos are on the outside of the playoff bubble.
Vikings win Panic Bowl versus Cowboys
We’re not used to seeing Brett Favre win ugly games, but that’s what he did yesterday in leading the Vikings to victory. Can they use this game as a stepping stone? On the other side, the Cowboys made enough mistakes again to prove how dumb of a football team they really are. Is it safe enough to write them out of the playoff race now?
Colts win Sunday nighter in Washington
Good road win for the Colts as they needed to prove to the rest of the NFL that there were no cracks forming or that the foundation of the dynasty was starting to crumble. The Redskins may not have the talent, but Mike Shanahan will keep them in every single game. The Redskins now have enough discipline that they will make you earn a victory.
Quick questions for both sides in Sens vs. Pens matchup:
For the Sens: What do you do defensively to match up against Crosby/Malkin?
For the Pens: Are any of the forwards outside of Crosby/Malkin going to be consistent contributors this season?
I might as well touch on the ALCS and NLCS as well while I’m here. ALCS Game 3 goes tonight and I’m convinced that the winner of this game wins the series. If AJ Burnett is truly going to pitch game 4 for the Yankees, I believe his confidence will depend on whether he’s pitching with the series lead or not.
The NLCS is going as expected for me. Game 3 tomorrow has the same feeling for me. Whoever wins that game will win the series.
Well, I decided to go past the 500 mark and make it an even 1000. It’s just so easy for me to get carried away with numerous breakdowns. Enjoy the games tonight!
The prevailing thought amongst NFL bettors over the years has been to avoid putting all your eggs in the basket or baskets of road teams. If you’ve ever been to an NFL game before with a packed crowd, you don’t need an explanation for this theory. For those who haven’t, the amount of crowd noise and hostility that an opposition faces by heading on the road can be daunting and very difficult to handle.
Having said that, I’ve never truly believed in that theory because it doesn’t fully account for games in which the road team takes on much lesser opposition. I don’t care if the game is played in North American, Europe or in Timbuktu, the much better team on paper should be able to impose their will and take out their lesser talented foes. I see three games this week that are good value for road teams taking on lesser opposition.
New Orleans (-4) vs. Tampa Bay
The Saints are dealing with some injury problems at the running back position and all the talk over the last couple of weeks has centered on the fact that the feared Saints offense is just not clicking as well as it did a year ago during the Super Bowl run. Bring in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Look, they’ve had a nice start to the year thanks to the play of Josh Freeman as their quarterback, but I’m still very skeptical about their overall talent level and the opposition in which they’ve gained their 3 wins so far this season. Wins against Cleveland, Carolina and Cincinnati don’t prove much to me, but their one game against top opposition was a 20+ point loss at the hands of the Steelers.
San Diego (-8) vs. St. Louis
There are lots of questions about the Chargers after their loss against Oakland last week. On the other side, there’s a lot of excitement surrounding the Rams (despite a 44-6 loss to Detroit last week) because of what Sam Bradford has brought to the table in his rookie campaign.
But there’s just too much talent on this Chargers team to lose to a young and inexperienced Rams team coming off a 1-15 campaign a year ago. If the Chargers can’t beat the Rams this week, we should stop talking about them as Super Bowl contenders.
Indianapolis (-3) vs. Washington
The theme for this pick is perception vs. reality.
All the talk surrounding the Colts has to do with whether or not the dynasty is starting to slowly crumble after getting off to a 3-2 start. In the past, the Colts would never have lost to the Texans or the Jaguars. They were even criticized for winning by 10 against the Chiefs last week because the margin of victory wasn’t as lopsided as we’re used to seeing.
The key to this game is simple. Even with all the talk of doom and gloom in Indy, the Colts still average 401 yards of offense per game. On the other side, despite a surprising 3-2 start under Mike Shanahan, the Redskins defense still gives up 410 yards of offense per game. But a lot of people don’t know that because of all the upbeat chatter coming out of the nation’s capital.
Another week of college football picks ahead of the noon kickoff start time. I’m hoping to do a little bit better than last week. I certainly learned my lesson to never bet on the number one team in the country ever again and never doubt the coaching ability of the ol’ ball coach. So, I’m vowing to stay away from the new number one Ohio State and looking to another team in the Big Ten to make me some coin.
#15 Iowa (-4) vs. Michigan
It’s not the sexiest team in the country nor is it the sexiest pick to make, but the Hawkeyes are just so damn consistent. Their defense is punishing and their offence does enough to get the job done. It’s all about their defense though. They’ve got the best points allowed per game average in the country, have held 4 of their 5 opponents to 7 points or less and haven’t given up a rushing touchdown this year.
I know Denard Robinson is a different cat and that Michigan will get some points on the board today, but they won’t get nearly enough and the Hawkeyes will continue to be that team that wins every single week and still gets no attention.
#11 Utah (-21) vs. Wyoming
I won with them last week and I might as well keep riding on the Utes bandwagon for another week. Just like Iowa, we’ve become accustomed to them winning all the time, but we never want to give them credit for doing it. The numbers are staggering though. They beat up Iowa State 68-27 last week, had just less than 600 yards of total offense and are now averaging 49 points a game.
On the other side, the numbers for Wyoming are staggering because they are so bad. The Cowboys allow 471 yards of offense a game and give up an average of 251 yards on the ground per game. You want to hear what their offense can do? From the Associated Press: Wyoming is last in the FBS in offense at 240.7 yards per game and in rushing yards with 69.2. The Cowboys are tied for 118th out of 120 FBS teams with 12.5 points a contest.
BYU (+29.5) vs. #4 TCU
This used to be a matchup that would be of consequence in the Mountain West. Somewhere along the way, TCU and Utah have leapt ahead of the Cougars to make the team from Provo a complete afterthought. Despite all that, seeing a 29.5 spread against BYU still catches the eye and makes you wonder what happened to such a storied program.
TCU is certainly a juggernaut, but a couple of things in BYU’s last game lead me to believe that they will keep this game close. On offense, they had their best single-game outputs in points and yards in a hard-fought win against San Diego State. On defense, they looked solid under a new defensive coordinator after their previous one had been fired the week before. Again, don’t pick them to win, but if they can snowball what they did a week ago, they at least keep it close.
Anyone that knows me or listens to Sportscall on a regular basis knows that I’m such a big fight fan, whether it’s MMA or boxing. Boxing was my first love and I’ll always follow that a little bit closer than MMA, but I still follow MMA well enough to have more than a few thoughts on tonight’s UFC 120 fight card in London, England. (BTW: The fights are actually on this afternoon here in Canada…)
A local note before we get into the main fights. Ottawa’s own Mark Boots” Holst will be on the undercard as he takes on undefeated English prospect Paul Sass. Holst is 8-2 and coming off a disappointing unanimous decision loss to John Gunderson at the Ultimate Fighter finale in June. Meanwhile, Sass comes in at 10-0 with 9 wins by way of submission. Two of his ten fights have made it past the first round, so he likes to work quickly. Holst goes in as a 2-1 underdog. My heart hopes that he pulls it out ‘cause he was an awesome guy to talk MMA with over the summer, but it looks as though the UFC is using Holst as an opponent to build up Sass.
The main event pits England’s own Michael “The Count” Bisping up against Japan’s heart-throb Yoshihiro Akiyama. I think the key to this fight is Akiyama’s ability to avoid takedowns. If he can successfully sprawl time and time again against Bisping’s attempted takedowns, it will go a long way to him pulling off the road win.
Problem is that I don’t see him being able to do that over three rounds. Bisping will eventually take him down with his superior wrestling skills and make it a ground and pound affair. It won’t be the most exciting fight, but the rules in MMA are set up right now for wrestlers to grind out wins and make things boring. No value in taking Bisping straight up, but look to the props. You get even money to bet Bisping to win by decision. I would go ahead and do that.
The co-main event sees Dan Hardy make his return to the octagon after a humbling loss to GSP. His opponent will be WEC and UFC veteran Carlos Condit. This will be a tough fight for both men since there really isn’t too much of a gap in talent. The biggest difference to me comes in experience. Hardy has been in bigger fights and his 5-round experience with GSP will go a long way to helping him win tonight and also get another shot at the belt.
Finally, look for Chieck Kongo to get himself a KO victory against Travis Browne. Kongo has a distinct advantage in striking and experience. Browne will have to try to get him down to the ground to neutralize him or get the fight into the third round and hope that Kongo runs out of gas. But expect this one to end early. On most betting sites, you’ll get Kongo to win by KO at even money.
Sometimes we get going on a topic that’s so juicy that people are calling/e-mailing left, right and centre. We saw that this morning as everyone had a solid opinion on the Nick Foligno hit on Pat Dwyer. The problem is that we have such a limited time to get everyone’s opinion read or heard, so from time to time, I like to go through the various e-mails and pick my Top 5 of the ones that weren’t read on-air.
For those who were selected, I’ve cleaned up the grammar/spelling issues. I’m sure you don’t mind…
5) From Jason
Phil,
You’re not listening to Lee...he agrees there was nothing Foligno could do. We all agree. But the rule is no head shots...forget who should or who shouldn;t do what. It’s irrelevant. It’s against the rules. Forget possession of the puck. The NHL doesn’t care who gets the puck... no head shots. Period.
If suspended, Foligno will be a victim, but he can’t hit a guy in the head. Forget the “what should he do, what do you expect him to do”. It doesn’t matter
You can hit a guy in the head if you want possession? Come on!
4) From Ric
Hey guys,
I agree with Phil, but I understand you need the rules. There should be an amendment to the rule. You will notice now that the players are taking advantage of the rule. Just watch the people on the boards, keeping their backs to people. And players now are, like you said, "human torpedoes" trying to get into the zone, knowing they have "invisible force shields" crossing the "Red line" to get into the "Zone". People shouldn't be aiming for the head, but people need to quit twisting the rules.
3) From JT
Hey guys,
Lee, are you on crack?
The Foligno his was legit, and he definitely shouldn't be punished. There have been much worse hits, and when someone like Dwyer puts themselves in a compromising situation, they should be accountable. If you were put in a situation where you either get benched, or do your job, what are you going to do?
Smarten up man!
Way to go Phil!
2) From Chris
If I’m driving a car and someone steps in front of it and I hit them, would it not be called an accident? It’s the same with hockey. How can someone going 60 mph be expected to change his path at the very last second. An object in motion tends to want to stay in motion. Hands down, it was accidental.
1) From Dano
Phil,
You have been toppled from your pedestal in my mind!! I'm left here questioning all I once thought was good in the world.
Though, given the fact that I usually agree with you, I have re-examined the situation and given your perspective some more thought and I believe I have come up with a pretty good solution: penalize any player who skates bent over. Clearly that is everything wrong with this game and it’s not fair to have those delivering headshots feeling bad about themselves. Clearly it’s all the fault of the guys who skate hunched over, trying to play the puck!
Great show guys!
We’re less than a week into the season, but for a couple of teams tonight, a win is almost a necessity in order to avoid digging a big hole for themselves. Say what you will about the importance of games in October as opposed to ones in March or April, but the last time I checked, the value for a win was still the same.
The New Jersey Devils are desperate right now. They’re 0-2-1 to start the year, not getting goaltending from Martin Brodeur and are playing with 15 or 16 skaters because of the fumbles of Lou Lamiorello in trying to get this team under the cap to start the season. Can they turn it around for one night in a win against Buffalo? Maybe…I hate betting against the Devils, I can tell you that. Three games though that I am willing to wager on tonight. I’ll talk about the other team in the desperate position at the end.
New York Islanders vs. Washington Capitals (-1.5, -105)
I think I’m just going to stick with betting against Islanders’ opponents by 2 until someone actually does win by a couple of goals or more. In all seriousness, there has to come a point when all the losses to the Isles lineup finally catch up with them. John Tavares, Kyle Okposo, Mark Streit and now James Wisniewski are all out after Wisniewski was suspended for his obscene gesture towards Sean Avery on Monday.
Couple that with the idea that Bruce Boudreau will be looking for a much better effort from his Caps team and particularly Alexander Ovechkin and we should see a much more energetic team at Verizon Center tonight.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (5.5, -120)
We could see sparks at the Consol Energy Center tonight. I just read that back...no pun intended. Everyone knows about the potential that Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin can bring to the ice on any single night. But the Leafs may have enough offence this time around to make it an even affair and a high-scoring one.
Guys like Tim Brent, Clarke MacArthur and Kris Versteeg have been dynamic in the first couple of games and the Penguins will be missing a couple of their top defensemen due to injury. Brooks Orpik will not go with a groin injury and Zybenek Michalek will miss the game with a shoulder injury.
Vancouver Canucks vs. Anaheim Ducks (+125)
That other desperate team is in Southern California as the Ducks have had the worst start in the league through the first three games. I pointed out everything yesterday, but for those who missed it, here’s the short form: They’ve taken the most penalties, have the worst goal differential and their top line has no points and are a -12.
However, they take on a team that hasn’t really gotten in gear themselves, but have been lucky enough to rely heavily on their goaltender to pull out some wins for them. The Canucks won’t be able to get away with a lack of scoring for too much longer and if the woes continue, they may finally get burned by the Ducks.
With only 2 NHL games and a single MLB playoff game tonight, we’ll look at the surprises and disappointments from the first week in the NHL. A lot of people will say that you can’t take much from a team only playing 2-3 games. In most instances, those people would be correct, but there are a couple of surprising/troubling trends I’ve noticed already.
(I’ll spare all of you the Sens talk since we’ve all had plenty of time to hash out their problems.)
Toronto Maple Leafs/Edmonton Oilers/St. Louis Blues
All these teams are off to a nice 2-0 start for various reasons. The Oilers have a lot of excitement surrounding their young core of Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle and Magnus Paajarvi. The Leafs are getting more production thanks to new forwards such as Clarke MacArthur, Kris Versteeg and even Tim Brent. And the Blues are getting production from guys that need to step up this season. But the goaltenders may be the unsung heroes of these three teams.
Nikolai Khabibulin has been impressive in the couple of games he’s played for the Oilers. With no one behind him to pick up the slack if they lose him, you hope for the sake of the team that he can stay healthy, consistent, and can sort out his legal troubles in Arizona for his extreme DUI.
J-S Giguere made some big saves late in the opener against Montreal and stopped what he needed to against a flat Sens team, but all the talk coming out of Toronto suggests that the Leafs have a quiet confidence to them now because they have solid veteran goaltending that they believe they can rely on.
And Jaroslav Halak is already making a difference with 2 wins in 2 starts, stopping 42 of 44 shots. Luckily for the sake of the hockey world, Carey Price has been solid for the Habs. Otherwise, we’d never stop hearing from Hab fan about how their GM botched what should have been a slam-dunk decision to keep Halak.
Detroit Red Wings
They look like a team on a mission to prove to everyone that they’re still one of the best teams around. I still can’t believe some “experts” foolishly just dismissed the Wings and cast them as an over-the-hill team clinging to their past glory.
Vancouver Canucks
Staying with the goaltending subject, it’s a good thing that the Canucks are getting their money’s worth out of Roberto Luongo in the first couple of games. The forwards and defense on this team look sleepy, uninterested and almost entitled to a playoff spot instead of going out to earn one. They’re certainly not living up to the expectations of a Stanley Cup contender by scoring 3 goals in 2 games.
Anaheim Ducks
What can you say about this sad sack of a team? The stats include: 2 goals for, 13 against in 3 games and a commanding lead in the penalty minute department with a whopping 145 minutes. The St. Louis Blues are a distant second with 88 penalty minutes and the New Jersey Devils are third with 63.
It’s not like Randy Carlyle is sending out a roster that resembles an AHL team. What happened to the talk that Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf and Bobby Ryan were among the best lines in hockey?
Happy Thanksgiving everyone! Hope you’re having a great weekend so far. Thought I would focus on hockey today and particularly on the matchup tonight between the Sens and the Caps.
All the talk around here over the last couple of days has been focused on the struggles of the Sens and what they can do to get back on track. Well, there’s no one glaring answer that pops out to everyone because just about every facet of their game has been bad.
Some people are quick to point at Erik Karlsson and his lack of urgency and production compared to what he did last year and the expectations that were put upon him for his sophomore season. Others, like me, look to the lack of production by the big names at the forward positions. It’s hard to think that Cory Clouston would be able to solve all the various problems in 48 hours, particularly as they are matched up against the best regular season team from a year ago.
I expect that the Caps should be able to handle the Sens, send them to 0-3 and make Sens fans throw up some of that turkey for the next couple of days as they wait patiently for the next chance to right the ship.
I’ll even go as far as to take the Caps to win by 2 and get good value at +140. The one saving grace I’ll give to Sens fans is that my picks have been bad since I started giving them on Friday. Taking teams by 2 will be the common theme for today, so here are a couple more that I feel pretty confident about.
New York Rangers (-1.5, +210) vs. New York Islanders
The Rangers are coming in off a high after a 6-3 opening night win on the road in Buffalo. Derek Stepan is making people forget that they’re without Chris Drury or Vinny Prospal and of course, when you have King Henrik, you always have a good chance to win.
On the other side, the Islanders are coming off a shootout loss to the Stars on Saturday in a game in which they outshot Dallas badly, but were hampered by sub-par play by Rick Dipietro. They also have to deal with another big injury as John Tavares will miss the game due to a mild concussion suffered against Dallas. Tavares now joins Kyle Okposo and Mark Streit on the injured list.
Florida Panthers vs. Vancouver Canucks (-1.5, +120)
The big thing to look at here is the gap in talent between the two clubs. The Canucks are supposed to be a Stanley Cup contender and the Panthers are supposed to be a bottom-feeder.
You can also look to the fact that the Panthers played last night in Edmonton and that Roberto Luongo has a 1.92 GAA against the Panthers in four meetings since leaving the team via trade.
Enjoy the rest of your holiday and enjoy the games this afternoon and tonight!
I’m doing all my work this morning from an internet café as my laptop is in the shop. Maybe it’s a blessing in disguise as I’ll be able to give you some sound advice as opposed to the breakdowns I gave you yesterday. Going 2 out of 6 is not going to help anyone. Thank goodness Utah and The Det/Chicago game went the way I figured because everything else went completely off the rails. Time to look at some of Sunday’s action…
Kansas City (+7.5) vs. Indianapolis
Everyone is just waiting for the slipper to fall off of the NFL’s final Cinderella for the 2010 season, but this may not be the week it happens. The key to this ball game is the running attack of the Chiefs. If they can do as much damage on the ground as the numbers suggest, the Chiefs will at least keep the game close and even win outright. At the very least, they’ll be able to dominate time of possession and keep Peyton off the field.
The Chiefs have a great running back tandem at their disposal in Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones that has allowed them to be third in the NFL in rushing at 160 yards a game. On the other side, the Colts have never been a good defense against the run and are proving it again this year as they give up 150 yards a game on the ground, good enough for 29th in the league in rushing yards allowed per game.
Atlanta (-3) vs. Cleveland
The Falcons are rolling on both sides of the ball over the first month of the season. They’ve won 3 in a row after losing their opener and they take on a Cleveland team that just can’t match the amount of talent they can throw out onto the field.
The numbers suggest a Falcons team that is balanced and consistent. 6th in the league in total offense per game, 9th in the NFL in points scored per game, 6th in the league in points allowed per game and tops in the NFL in interceptions with eight. They’ve also forced three turnovers in each of their last three games en route to victory.
New Orleans (-7) vs. Arizona
Everyone is looking at the struggles of the Saints to put up the same amount of points that they did a year ago in taking the league by storm. The one problem with looking for problems in the Saints is that they’re still 3-1. They might be able to solve their offensive problems today against a Cardinals team that is void of talent on both sides of the ball.
The Cardinals have give up 29.5 points per game and 388 yards per game with two of those games happening against Oakland and St. Louis, not exactly offensive juggernauts. On the other side of the ball, things have been so bad that they turn to rookie Max Hall to try and lead the offense. Big problems for the Cards include a non-existent running game with Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower and a lack of options at the wide receiver spot with Steve Breaston and Early Doucet both expected to be inactive today.
First, a couple of thoughts on the Sens/Leafs game tonight before looking at the games I’m most confident in. Don’t ask me who’s going to win because there’s too much up in the air at this point. If I had to guess, I would say that Jason Spezza misses another game tonight, but he could very well be in the lineup. On paper, the Sens are the better team, but the early momentum is on the side of Toronto.
The Sens need their Top 6 forwards to be much better than they were against Buffalo last night. If the Sens have to rely on the third and fourth lines to muster most of the offence in any given game, they won’t win. Now to the games of the day...
Philadelphia (+125) vs. St. Louis
A few things draw me into taking the underdog on the road. First of all, I think the Flyers are a better team on paper than the Blues. Secondly, the Flyers have had a game to work some of the kinks and jitters in starting the season while the Blues will be playing their opener. Third, I just wonder about the psyche of Jaroslav Halak.
He clearly had a lot of trouble handling the Flyers in the Eastern Conference finals because of their size and their willingness to create traffic and cause havoc in front of the net. The Flyers will clearly do this again tonight, so how will Halak handle this differently as a member of the Blues?
Detroit vs. Chicago u 5.5 (+105)
Even though it’s only the second game of the year for both teams, something tells me that this will be close to a playoff atmosphere. With the Hawks having a chance to raise the Stanley Cup banner, I think the Wings will look to take this opportunity to show the Hawks that they will be the team to beat this year.
With both teams wanting to impose their will on each other, both teams will be extra careful not to make any mistakes and we could see some jagged, yet physical play over the 60 minutes. Jimmy Howard is a very solid goaltender and you just have to hope for the sake of the bet that Marty Turco can be consistent enough not to make any major mistakes.
New York Rangers vs. Buffalo u 5.5 (-125)
No real need to explain this one. It’s all about the goaltenders on this pick. It’s just hard to bet against a combination of Henrik Lundqvist and Ryan Miller in goal. Even if the Sabres decide to give Miller the night off, Lalime is a competent backup and he’ll face a Rangers team that struggles to score goals at times.
The game I’m most interested in happens in Vancouver as the Canucks take on the Los Angeles Kings. Both teams are looking to take the next step in their franchise development into a Stanley Cup contender. The difference being that the Kings might be still a couple years away, but the Canucks are there now. How does this team start a season in which they’re expected to battle for the Cup?
After doing 62 previews in the span of a couple of months, I got a lot of great feedback from people that wanted me to break down games and even in-game matchups, so I’ll be doing that a lot starting today. The college football breakdown will be Part 1 and the NHL breakdown will be Part 2. I can’t resist putting up silly videos, so that won’t change, but I’m excited to break games down now instead of just individual teams. Let’s get started!
Indiana vs. Ohio State (-24)
Just seems like too big of a number here for the Buckeyes. The Hoosiers of a few years ago would have been worthy of being such a massive underdog, but at 3-1 so far in the 2010 campaign, Indiana has the record at least to show that it won’t be a pushover.
Don’t get me wrong, Ohio State will win the game, but if you look deeper into the numbers, you’ll see that this game should be much more competitive. First of all, the Buckeyes could only beat Illinois last week by 11, while the Hoosiers only lost by a touchdown to Michigan. Also, Indiana is fourth in the country in passing yards per game and held the ball for over 42 minutes last week.
Alabama (-7) vs. South Carolina
Until they prove you wrong or cost you money, you have to keep rolling with the Tide. After an impressive performance against Florida last week, there’s a prevailing thought that this could be a trap game for Alabama against the ol’ ball coach. The problem with that theory is that you’re counting on a South Carolina team to be playing at their very best and that’s not the case.
Quarterback Stephen Garcia has struggled enough this season that he was pulled late in the game against Auburn last time out. The Gamecocks also gave up a staggering 334 yards on the ground to Auburn, which begs the question: How many yards can the dynamic duo of Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson put up?
Utah (-6.5) vs. Iowa State
Key stat to this ball game thanks to the Associated Press: Utah is averaging 44.3 points, tied for sixth-best in the nation, and shouldn’t have issues moving the ball against an Iowa State team allowing 384.4 yards per game - 84th in the FBS.
If the Utes are serious about being BCS busters and making it to the National Championship game in January, they cannot slip up against a team that sports a 3-2 record. They have had two weeks to prepare for this matchup and you have to assume the extra week off allow for some rest, some healing and extra preparation.
Best games outside the networks if you have the college football package:
12 o’clock games – Tennessee v. Georgia – You’ll love the energy of Tennessee coach Derek Dooley when you watch
3:30 games – Arkansas vs. Texas A&M – Tough game on a neutral site for the Razorbacks...the Aggies will be pumped to play in front of essentially a home crowd at Cowboys Stadium
After 61 previews of NHL and NFL teams, we’ve come down to the final one. For the record, I’m kind of happy that I’ll be able to talk about something other than the makeup of teams. I'll get more into the breakdown of games and in-game match-ups every day starting tomorrow. We’ve saved the best for last and a couple of people that have e-mailed me asking for this will finally get their wish. We look at the Ottawa Senators.
I can start this in so many different ways, but I’ll begin with the subject that has been debated the most over the last couple of weeks: the goaltending. Pascal Leclaire will be counted on to: 1) Stay injury-free since he’s only played in 46 games over the last couple of years. 2) Finally show that the expectations that were put upon him were valid and emerge as the starter. If these goals can’t be achieved, then we’ll be talking about the goaltending a lot again.
Defensively, the Sens made many changes and in the process became more of a finesse and offensive-minded defence than a year ago. Gone are the physical/rugged defencemen and shot-block extraordinaires Anton Volchenkov and Andy Sutton and insert veteran slickster Sergei Gonchar.
GM Bryan Murray assured the fans that were worried about the loss of physicality by saying that the team would focus much more on being a puck-possession team. The number of shots blocks for the Sens would dip and the number of shot blocks by the opposition would rise. Considering the makeup of the defensemen on the roster, the plan makes sense, but can Clouston get the guys to execute correctly?
The forwards will have a lot to do with this new gameplan being effective, but as individuals, many of the 12 forwards will have something to prove to the hockey world this year. Just look at the years of 5 out of the Top 6 forwards and they all have something in common in their less-than-stellar 2009-2010 seasons: injury.
Daniel Alfredsson led the team in points with 71 points in 70 games despite having hernia problems in the second half of the year. Jason Spezza was second on the team with 57 points in 60 games despite back and knee problems. Alex Kovalev and Milan Michalek had their seasons ended because of major knee injuries and Nick Foligno suffered a broken leg in the middle of the year. Only Mike Fisher got through unscathed and he had a career year.
Two players to look out for in camp are Peter Regin and Spezza. Regin battled with Foligno for a second line spot and ended up losing. He will now find himself on the fourth line to start the season despite being a skill guy. Can he adapt to his new role and prove the coaches wrong? Spezza not only had to deal with injury, but a tumultuous off-season as well with the debate of whether he wanted out of Ottawa or not. With redemption in mind because of injury and looking to prove to the fans that he’s committed to the franchise, could we see the Jason Spezza that has always been promised since he was first hyped back in junior?
It’s not too often that you talk about a team being a Stanley Cup contender despite being bounced in the opening round the year before and had more off-season subtractions than additions, but that’s exactly where the Washington Capitals as we get to the start of the year.
If it weren’t for the magical run of Jaroslav Halak and the Montreal Canadiens, the course of history could have been much different and we might have been talking about the Caps as champs instead of a team looking for redemption. But alas, the Caps have something to prove to the hockey world despite an amazing 121 point regular season.
We all know what this team is going to do in the regular season: score a lot of goals, pick up a lot of wins and find themselves with a point total in the triple-digits again. But doing it in the regular season won’t matter a lick to anyone that follows the NHL. The Caps can only turn some heads and prove people wrong once the calendar gets to April 2011 and the playoffs begin.
Of course, everything revolves around Alex Ovechkin since he’s the biggest superstar/rock star the league has today. It helps when you can put up 109 points in 72 games like he did a year ago. But if for some reason he can’t get it done on a particular night, there are several others that can pick up the slack. Nick Backstrom had 101 points a year ago and Alexander Semin had 84 just to name a couple.
Defensively, everyone will look to Mike Green and his tremendous offensive numbers. It’s just unfathomable to be talking about a defenseman that registers over a point a game for a full season, but that’s exactly what Green was able to do by putting up 76 points in 75 games last season.
One of the few questions about this team is whether they have enough talent defensively to keep from being in shootouts night after night. If the defence is weak, the forwards will be able to bail them out a lot of the time, but with playoffs always in mind for this team, that could become a season-long storyline.
In goal, Semyon Varlamov has finally taken the starting job outright as the Caps passed on keeping Jose Theodore around for another season. But can he be consistent enough so that the goaltending can stay out of the media spotlight? In 26 games last season, he won 15 times with a 2.55 GAA and a .910 save percentage.
Two players to watch out for in camp are John Carlson and Tomas Fleischmann. Carlson will have his first full season with the club after a great final junior season in which he scored the tournament winner for the U.S at the World Juniors. Is he ready for prime-time on the Top 4 of this defence? Fleischmann had always been in the shadow of the Big 3 of Ovechkin, Semin and Backstrom. But he’s made steady progress in his first couple of years. Is he ready to breakout and make it a Big 4?
How many years in a row have we talked about a certain team in Northern California being the top candidate to win the Stanley Cup, only to see them fall completely flat on their faces in the playoffs to give them the unanimous vote of being the biggest chokers in the NHL. So, what’s so different about the San Jose Sharks this time around that we shouldn’t just label them chokers?
Well, for starters, they made it to the third round of the playoffs for the first time since 2004 with playoff victories over the Colorado Avalanche and a favoured Detroit Red Wings team. That bests their past four performances that saw them lose in the second round three times and upset in the first round by the Anaheim Ducks two seasons ago.
Secondly, they made a significant change at the goaltender position as perennial choker Evgeni Nabokov was let go and was replaced by a tandem of Antero Nittymaki and then Stanley Cup champion Antti Niemi. Nabokov was always tremendous in the regular season, but sub-par in the playoffs. Will the opposite hold true for this year’s tandem? Only time will tell and anyone who tells you they know is lying through their teeth.
There is lots of talk that the Sharks will platoon both of them in a 1a/1b scenario unless one of the two can take the spot and run with it. It will be hard to imagine that Niemi wouldn’t get the first crack at the starting spot considering that he came off a championship win.
Other than the change in goal, the Sharks return with the same line-up from a year ago. The top line of Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau and Dany Heatley will still be a major force night after night. Joe Pavelski, Ryane Clowe and Devin Setoguchi is a solid second line and head coach Todd McClellan will be counting on former 67’s Jamie McGinn and Logan Couture to make significant contributions.
Defensively, Rob Blake retired to leave a veteran hole on defence, but Dan Boyle is still around to lead the defence core that is top-end talented including Marc-Edouard Vlasic and Douglas Murray. The bottom 3 is experienced, but will be targeted by the opposition as a possible hole.
Two players to watch out for in camp are Devin Setoguchi and Jason Demers. With all the forwards producing at a great rate last season, Setoguchi was one of the rare Sharks to have an off-year last season. After a season with 31 goals and 65 points 2 years ago, he regressed last season to score only 20 goals and 36 points. It won’t be necessary for him to get back to his form from two years ago, but it would be a nice bonus if he could. Demers will be asked to be a Top 4 defenseman this year after a breakout year with 21 points in 51 games. Can he handle the promotion and give the team some consistency?
After so many years of waiting, the people of Chicago were able to celebrate a Stanley Cup championship on June 9th. Two weeks later, the dismantling began as the possible dynasty became another victim of the economics of the modern game. (a.k.a. The Salary Cap)
It’s almost easier to tell you who’s still left on the team than to tell you who’s gone. Several players from the Stanley Cup team will now be playing for Chicago Blackhawks South, better known as the Atlanta Thrashers. The rest ended up finding places here and there and will attempt to live up to the expectations placed upon Stanley cup winners despite playing for new teams that aren’t nearly as strong.
The great news for Hawks fans is that the core of this young group is still intact with Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Patrick Sharp, Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook all around to defend possibly the hardest trophy to defend in all of sports. But they’ll have to rely on new faces and in a lot of cases, young faces to pick up the slack if they want to get back to where they were a year ago.
The forward ranks remain strong with the aforementioned superstars on the club, but the question remains: Can they be as good with several of their role players now moved on to different teams? Everyone who left just had a specific role on the club that made them so valuable. Can the news guys like Viktor Stalberg, Fernando Pisani and Jack Skille find a way to stand out to help the club in their own specific way?
Good news for the defence though as the Top 6 remains virtually untouched. The Top 4 is exactly the same as Keith will be paired with Seabrook and Niklas Hjalmarsson will be with Brian Campbell. With so much change surrounding the team, these four guys will be counted on to bring much needed stability night after night as the team works through the growing pains of a new roster.
The move that will draw the most attention throughout the season will be the change between the pipes. The duo of Antti Niemi and Cristobal Huet are gone to fend for themselves in San Jose and Switzerland respectively. And the new duo of Marty Turco and Corey Crawford will take their place.
Turco represents one of two players to look out for in camp as he played in only 53 games last season for the Dallas Stars, picking up 22 wins with a 2.72 GAA and .913 save percentage. The Turco of 5 years ago would have been an upgrade, but the present-day Turco is a lateral move at best. We’ll find out if it’s worse than that. The other player to keep an eye on is Troy Brouwer as he emerged last year as a key member of the club by adding 22 goals and 40 points last season. More will be expected of him this season as he gets moved up the depth chart. Can he handle the pressure of being a Top 6 forward?
Whether we’re watching sports, talking about them or even playing them, we’re always in pursuit of the Hollywood story that can be put onto the big screen and can capture the hearts and imaginations of the audience. The best sports story from 2010 that could end up on a big screen someday could be the Phoenix Coyotes and their unbelievable run a year ago.
No one expected anything from a team that was going through so much turmoil involving ownership and their future location. The greatest player of all-time and head coach was let go and the franchise was being run by the league with a fixed budget. If there was ever a candidate for a lame-duck team, the Coyotes were it.
Despite all the predictions of doom and gloom, head coach Dave Tippett was able to groom this roster to a 107 point season and the playoffs as a four seed. Unfortunately, the fairy tale ended with an opening round loss to the Detroit Red Wings, but the few fans that the team has in Arizona were pumped for the future.
What lies ahead for the Coyotes? Only time will tell, but the obvious question is: Can they do it again? Unlike last year when no one expected them to do anything, the Coyotes will not be able to sneak up on anyone this time around.
Looking at the stats for this team, you would wonder how they got to 107 points at all. Their leading scorer a year ago was Shane Doan with a whopping 55 points in 82 games. But if you go deeper into the numbers, you’ll see that 10 players were able to put up at least 10 goals. It’s the true definition of a team where everyone is expected to chip in and the players don’t rely on one superstar to carry them on their back night after night.
The Coyotes might be a little bit weaker on defence after Zybenek Michalek took his services to Pittsburgh on July 1st, but other than that move, Phoenix will ice basically the same 6 defencemen as they did a year ago. The Top 4 will be full of experience with Ed Jovanovski and Adrian Aucoin leading the way.
In goal, Ilya Bryzgalov gave the Coyotes the stability they needed in order to be successful. His numbers were outstanding as he played in a career-high 69 games, won a career-high 42 games with a GAA of 2.29 and a 920 save percentage.
Two players to look out for in camp are Scottie Upshall and Lee Stempniak. Upshall was having a great year with 32 points in 49 games before a major knee injury knocked him out in January. Can he rebound from major knee surgery to get back to the form he was playing at for the Coyotes? Stempniak returns to the desert after re-signing in the off-season. His up and down year is well-documented. He struggled in Toronto to start the year with only 30 points in 62 games. He played the final 18 games of the regular season in Phoenix and put up 18 points, 14 of them being goals. He won’t keep that kind of pace for a full schedule, but what player does Phoenix get this year? First-half Lee or second-half Lee?