Beware the Zamboni Driver



Miami Heat Troubles

It was supposed to be so easy. The trio would get together, play some basketball and win 60-70 games as they dominated the Eastern Conference. Everyone was so excited about what could be in store when Lebron James and Chris Bosh joined Dwayne Wade in taking their talents to South Beach.

However, we’re 17 games into the year and the Heat are 9-8 on the season while having to deflect talk about their coach being on the hot seat and the players having a lack of respect for him. I thought the Heat would be good, but not necessarily great because of their lack of depth, but I could never have imagined a start like this. Having seen enough games now, there’s three things other than their lack of depth that really trouble me.

1) The Pecking Order

It was something that was asked in the pre-season and it’s something that still hasn’t been answered. The question is: If the Heat have one shot to win the game, who gets the ball? Wade, Bosh or LeBron? Most people will take Bosh out of the equation, so who gets it? The problem is that the pecking order has not been figured out yet.

Everyone is afraid of hurting everyone else’s feelings. LeBron and Bosh don’t want to step on Wade’s toes. Wade wants to keep LeBron and Bosh happy since they’re used to being the man. The bench players want to get the ball to the star players so that they don’t look ungrateful for playing with basketball royalty. There’s no synergy between these players and until they figure out a concrete pecking order, there won’t be any order.

2) The Coach

It’s obvious that the Big Three don’t respect Erik Spoelstra because of his lack of experience and his relative youth. Spoelstra is trying too hard to put his stamp on a team that doesn’t necessarily need or react to tough love. There’s clearly a disconnect between the players and the coach. Since there’s no way that the players are going anywhere, either Spoelstra is going to have to change his ways and quickly or he will be replaced.

3) A Lack of Toughness

Udonis Haslem is someone that won’t be recognized by fair-weather basketball fans, but he had such a valuable role on this Heat team. He was the one player that could bring size, toughness and emotion to a team full of superstars that aren’t used to doing the dirty work. Don’t ask Chris Bosh or LeBron James to play a physical style for a full game because it’s not their style. They’re used to someone else doing that for them. With a lack of toughness, opponents will be willing to test the heart of the Heat every night. There have been too many nights when the Heat didn’t have the desire to win a ball game.

We all know that things can change at the drop of a hat in professional sports. This time next month, we could be talking about the Heat because they put together a lengthy streak of wins, but with so much work to do, they can only afford right now to look at games one at a time.

The Good and Bad from Football This Weekend



Sunday Videos



Best of the NHL This Week



Oh that Lindsey Vonn, err...Veronica Vaughn





Friday NCAA Football Picks

American Thanksgiving means a lot of football on Thursday and Friday. Most Canadians know about the traditional Thanksgiving day games in Detroit and Dallas, but a lot of people don't know that many rivalry games in NCAA football are saved for Thanksgiving weekend. Many of these games will have bowl implications and Friday's action has a lot of national championship implication. I wanted to take a look at the three big matchups on Friday that involved the Top 3 teams in the BCS.

#2 Auburn Tigers (+4) vs. #9 Alabama Crimson Tide

There's so little to choose from between these two schools. According to the pre-season predictions, Alabama was supposed to be in the position of Auburn and competing for a national championship and Auburn was supposed to be in the position of Alabama having a nice season but being relegated to a New Year's Day bowl game. However, Auburn quarterback Cam Newton has changed everything and will be counted on to lead auburn to victory in their most dangerous regular-season game.

I'm pretty confident in taking Auburn here because even if they lose, I expect the game to be a very close and competitive contest. I think they'll win though and the talk about Cam Newton winning the national championship and the Heisman as a possible ineligible player will continue.

#20 Arizona Wildcats (+19) vs. #1 Oregon Ducks

The Ducks are trying to desperately hold on to one of the top 2 BCS spots for a chance to play for the national championship, but they have a stiff test ahead of them with Arizona coming to town on Friday night. Everyone knows about how strong Oregon's offence is as they average 51 points a game, but a lot of people may fall into the trap of underestimating what Arizona is going to bring to the table.

The Wildcats have averaged 40 points a game in their last four contests and boast a high-ranking defence as well. Arizona is ranked No. 20 nationally in total defense, allowing an average 319.3 yards, and 14th in run defense, allowing 112.9. There's also the idea of Arizona desperately wanting to play spoiler for their fellow Pac-10 member. Oregon ultimately wins, but it will stay within three touchdowns.

#3 Boise State Broncos (-14.5) vs. #19 Nevada Wolfpack

I really thought that Fresno State would give the Broncos a tough test at home last week and give them a scare as Boise tries to sneak its way into the national championship game. After watching a 51-0 beating in its entirety, I'm thoroughly convinced now that the Broncos are for real and would match up well against anyone in a national title game.

They have their toughest test of the season tomorrow night against the Wolfpack as Nevada offers up an offence that's just as dynamic as Boise's. To me though, it's not even about what each other's offences can put up, but rather what their defences look like and that's where Nevada can't hang. Boise State is tops in the country in rushing yards allowed at 72, second in the country at total defence allowing only 229 yards and second in points allowed averaging 11.5 a game. Boise wins again and the debate rages on about the BCS vs. a playoff system.

Week 12 NFL Picks

Just finished watching the Detroit Lions lose another Thanksgiving Day game at home by double digits to the New England Patriots. As Matthew Barnaby tweeted only a few minutes ago, it just wouldn't be a proper Thanksgiving without a Lions blowout loss. Getting ready for a couple more NFL games to end the day, but figured that I should get in my NFL picks for the week since one of them involves a game starting in less than 30 minutes.

New Orleans Saints (-6) vs Dallas Cowboys

There was a lot of talk at the start of the year that the Saints may have lost their Super Bowl touch because of the dreaded hangover that comes with being the defending champions. However, as time has passed, it looks as though the Saints have become comfortable in their new skin and look to be regaining the form that allowed them to gain the ultimate prize a year ago.

The key stats that I'm looking to: In the Saints' past four victories, they've averaged just under 30 points a game. They averaged 32 points a game last season. Drew Brees is also showing great form over the last three games by averaging 313 yards a game and throwing 8 TD's in those victories. Adding Reggie Bush to the mix will make this offence even more dynamic and should lead them to a decisive victory over the Cowboys.

Minnesota Vikings (+1) vs. Washington Redskins

The rebuilding process can get officially underway on Sunday when Leslie Frazier leads his men to battle this week against Washington and not Brad Childress. Clearly the Vikings have struggled this season, but with the distraction of Childress now gone, I expect to see a bounce-back end to the season for Minnesota.

On the other side, the Redskins have been dealing with a lot of drama of their own thanks to the off-field war of words between Donovan McNabb and Mike/Kyle Shanahan. With that still a major focal point, the fact that the Redskins are being decimated by injuries is really flying under the radar. They're banged up and down to third-stringers in a few positions. In the end, Minny will win. It's too little, too late for them to make the playoffs, but a win here would be nice.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5) vs. Buffalo Bills

There's a lot of excitement in Orchard Park about the fact that the Bills have won two in a row and that they may have a dynamic duo to cheer for in quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick and wide receiver Steve Johnson. The two clearly have a great chemistry and may be the building blocks to a dynamic offence down the road, but this is the 2010 Buffalo Bills and they're still a bad football team.

I see the Steelers being able to make this a gritty, smash-mouth affair in which they dominate the time of possession via the run game. Rashard Mendenhall will get a ton of carries as head coach Mike Tomlin looks to expose the worst run defence in the NFL over and over again. The Bills may have won a couple of games, but much like the Raiders last week, the Bills will find out why the Steelers are well above them and considered a Super Bowl contender.

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Week 11 NFL Thoughts

For those who read my Thursday entry and actually decided to take my advice to milk some money from your friends, local OLG retailers or your online bookies, you're welcome. :-) I'M JOKING! Sometimes I just can't resist, but it's so gratifying when everything you write actually comes to pass. As the NFL weeked wraps up with the Monday nighter, I wanted to break down all the action from Sunday.

Chicago Bears vs. Miami Dolphins

Game 1 of the 5 game perfection from Thursday. Here's exactly what I wrote from Thursday: "I think Chicago gets past Miami based on the strength of their defense vs. a Tyler Thigpen led Miami offence. Thigpen got it done for one afternoon, but to ask a thrd-stringer to lead you to victory back-to-back weeks is probably asking too much."

Tyler Thigpen was really exposed in this game as a third-stringer as he was pressured all night by the Bears' defense. The biggest difference to me is the presence of a pass rush with the addition of Julius Peppers. His ability to get to the quarterback causes such a disruption to the opposing offence and was well worth the big free-agent payday.

Oakland Raiders vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Game 2 of Thursday perfection. Exact quote: "Pittsburgh beats Oakland soundly. The Raiders have had a nice season so far, but still don’t have enough talent to match up well against the Steelers. Look at the Raiders schedule and you’ll see that they haven’t really faced a bonafide Super Bowl contender yet. They’ll be exposed this week."

It was just total domination in all facets of the game and it was made clear that the Raiders are not in the same class as the Steelers or any other Super Bowl contender. Oakland has shown improvement in their offence this season, but I would like to see Al Davis start to focus a little more attention now on improving the defence.

Cleveland Browns vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

A tough loss for the Browns to swallow as they played well for 55 minutes before their defence broke down in the final 5 minutse to give up two touchdowns. A young team is going to have these growing pains as they continue to learn and mature, but if you're a Browns fan, you have to be happy with the season considering the expectations.

As for the Jags, give them a lot of credit for being able to pull it out and give themselves a share of the AFC South lead with the Indianapolis Colts. No one gave this team a chance to be 6-4 at this point in the season, but Jack Del Rio has really gotten a lot out of players that weren't wanted or passed up.

Washington Redskins vs. Tennessee Titans

Big win for the Redskins and an even bigger loss for the Titans. The Titans needed this game in the worst way as they now find themselves behind both the Colts and the Jags in the AFC South. It's pretty easy to say that the gamble by Jeff Fisher and the Titans to bring in Randy Moss has turned into a big mistake and headache. No catches for Moss is just inexcusable.

As for the Redskins, I don't think they're good enough to get themselves in a position to win the NFC East or get a wild card spot, but I loved the comeback from a team that was thoroughly trounced by the Eagles 6 days ago. Donovan McNabb took a lot of criticism after that performance for some odd reason, but he "bounced back" by having a big statistical day.

Houston Texans vs. New York Jets

I've heard this about 100 times in the mere hours after the Jets win. Are the Jets a good football team or are they just lucky? How can you call an 8-2 team lucky? It's one thing to be able to comeback once and be lucky, but you have a talented football team if you can do it consistently.

I know, I hear you screaming right now, "If they're a talented football team, why do they put themselves in such a perilous position every single week?" I wish I had the answer to that. It's not what what I would want to do week in/week out and it will come to haunt them if they continue to do so, but give credit to the Jets. The Texans are just a bad football team. That's it.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Carolina Panthers

Not much to breakdown between these two teams. It was known before the game and it's certainly known after that the Ravens have much more talent than the Panthers. I thought the Panthers did OK to keep it as close as they did considering they started a stay-at-home dad at QB for this week.

The Panthers have to be the new favourites to take the number one overall pick in the draft now since they have no quarterback, no real running back and a lack of talent defensively. On the other side, the Ravens did their job in keeping pace with the Steelers in the AFC North. Even if they can't win the division, they'll be good enough to win a Wild Card spot.

Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings

How the mighty have fallen in just three months, but things have changed so quickly for the Vikings since August when they were considered a threat to win the NFC Championship and the Super Bowl. Now we shrug our shoulders when they get pumped by the Packers at home. What a shame.

The Packers are quietly building up a great record and should be able to pull away from the pesky Bears by the end of the year. As for the Vikings, everyone knows what the problems are. Brad Childress was a lame-duck coach and Brett Favre is nowhere near the player he was a year ago. The Vikings should be better off with Leslie Frazier in charge and once Brett Favre is out of the picture.

Arizona Cardinals vs. Kansas City Chiefs

I love the balance that the Chiefs have now with their roster. Their offence is a threat on the ground with Thomas Jones/Jamaal Charles and in the passing game with the emergence of Dwayne Bowe/Matt Cassel. However, the biggest difference to me is their defence playing as a unit.

A lot of their defensive players were highly touted and expected to bring a lot to the Chiefs, but over the last couple of years, we saw a lot of them play individually and it hurt the team. With Romeo Crennel leading the defence now, they're playing as a group and making things much more difficult for opposing offences.

Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys

The lesson to be learned from this game is that when you have offensive balance, you have a much better chance to win. The Lions relied solely on Shaun Hill to throw the football that they became one-dimensional and predictable. Jon Kitna only threw the ball 24 times and for less than 150 yards, but the Cowboys won the ball game because they finally decided to lean a bit on their rushing attack.

It's unfortunate that it took until the second half of the year and a coaching change for the Cowboys to realize that they needed to hand the ball off much more, but that is what Jason Garrett has done in his first couple of games as head coach. It's too little, too late for the Cowboys, but the storyline for the rest of the year is whether Garrett can keep the winning going and keep his job.

Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals

The Bills have won two in a row! It's amazing what the emergence of one player can do, but at the rate that he's performing, Steve Johnson is going to be the next person to have a cereal named after him. It was supposed to be about CJ Spiller, but Johnson is making it easier for people to forget about him instead of worry about him coming back.

Every week, it gets worse and worse for my prediction of the Bengals being the surprise team of the AFC. On paper, this team should be closer to an 8-2 team rather than 2-8, but it's clear that there are a lot of individuals on this team. The plan to bring in big personalities and comeback projects has certainly failed.

Seattle Seahawks vs. New Orleans Saints

Pick 3 of Thursday's Perfection. A little bit off with what happened, but it's not that big of a deal. "The Saints show the Seahawks why no one ever takes the NFC West division champ seriously by putting a good whooping on them. Reggie Bush comes back to the offence and I think Drew Brees and the rest of that group find themselves again in thumping Seattle."

Well, the only thing that I missed was that Reggie Bush in fact missed the game as a game-time decision gone wrong, but as the season has gone on, Drew Brees has become more comfortable and we're starting to see the Saints of last season. It's almost like the Saints are becoming comfortable in their skin as defending champs.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. San Francisco 49ers

It's not pretty and it's just about impossible to explain, but the Bucs are 7-3 and have put themselves in a great spot to get themselves into the playoffs. It's a shame that they have to play in the NFC South where 7-3 gets you into a tie for second with the Saints and one game behind the Falcons.

Raheem Morris has certainly leaned on young guys to play in big-time situations and it's worked out so well. On the other side, Mike Singletary has to be coming close to the end of his tenure with the Niners. There was a lot of promise this season of the Niners being NFC West champs, but it's not going to happen.

Atlanta Falcons vs. St. Louis Rams

Pick 4 of Thursday's perfection. Thursday's thoughts, "Atlanta takes care of an under-talented Rams team. It’s a minor miracle that Sam Bradford has been able to lead this team to 4 wins, but at some point, injuries and a lack of talent will come back to bite you." Bradford did well to keep the Rams in it, but his inexperience really cost the Rams in the 4th after an ill-advised shovel pass turned into a big turnover that sealed the win for the Falcons.

Not only can the Falcons throw the ball, but they can punish opposing defences with a powerful rushing attack led by Michael Turner. The time of possession was 35-25 in favour of Atlanta today and if they can continue to do that in the regular season and playoffs, they will go a long way.

Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots

At 8-2, Bill Belichick continues to show his ability to coach and win with no-name players. All he needs is Tom Brady and everything will usually work out. The Colts are usually right there with the Patriots, but injuries have really decimated this team to force them to be at 6-4 after today's loss.

The biggest thing I notice is that Peyton Manning can work wonders with third-string/practice squad receivers, but he can't control the fact that they don't have an elite rusher like they did when Edgerrin James was in town or when Joseph Addai was at his best. Donald Brown just isn't good enough to do it on his own.

New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Pick 5 of Thursday's perfection. Thursday's thoughts, "I think the magic from Monday night continues and the Eagles get past the Giants. Michael Vick was always able to run the football effectively, but the knock was that he couldn’t throw the football on a consistent basis. Now that he seems to have that facet of the game down as well, the question is: How do you stop this guy?"

The Eagles won the game, but it wasn't all about Michael Vick. It just came down to mistakes and the Eagles capitalized on more of them. The Giants found a way to neutralize Vick by pressuring him from all different directions, but they couldn't make a big stop in the final quarter. Look for opposing teams to copy what the Giants did defensively on Sunday night.

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November 19th-20th College Football Action

We're doing the college football preview one day early because one of my picks for the weekend involves a Friday night game that has major BCS implications. For teams with national championship aspirations, they only have a couple of chances left to make an impression on pollsters with big performances, so we could see some lopsided scores.

We may not get any changes to the order of the BCS after this week's games, but I'm really looking forward to next week when a lot of important games are scheduled for the US Thanksgiving weekend. Alright, let's get to the picks.

Fresno State Bulldogs (+30) vs. Boise State Broncos

It's unfortunate that the college football system of awarding a national championship is so flawed and the team that might get hurt the most is Boise State. They could easily go undefeated and still be passed up for the national championship because Oregon and Auburn are both undefeated as well.

Before they can think about an undefeated season, they have to get past Fresno State tonight in what is traditionally a tough WAC matchup. Kellen Moore has lit up opposing pass defences for Boise State this year, but Fresno State may offer more resistance as they've given up less than 200 yards passing a game. Fresno State is also coming off a 1-point loss to ranked Nevada last week. If the Bulldogs win, it would be a major upset, but don't be surprised if they keep the game close.

Wisconsin Badgers (-4.5) vs. Michigan Wolverines

Wisconsin seems to come up on this list every week, but they're really a bettor's dream because they are consistent in their plan to run the football, but they're consistent at getting the job done as well. You know what you're going to get when you decide to invest in the Badgers.

Wisconsin is coming off an 83 point performance against Indiana last week thanks to 338 yards rushing. Even though the Wolverines are 7-3 on the year, Michigan might be tailor-made for Wisconsin since they've given up an average of 183 yards rushing against Big Ten opponents.

Ohio State Buckeyes (-3) vs. Iowa Hawkeyes

Every single year, the Buckeyes are in a position where they need big wins late in the year in order to keep their BCS position. This week is no different as they take on the 21st ranked Hawkeyes. As opposed to past years where they may have sown up the title already, it's so important for the Buckeyes to win out the rest of the year because they are tied with Michigan State and Wisconsin for the lead in the race for the Big Ten title.

I think it's just comes down to overall talent on the field. Ohio State is always near the top of the country in recruiting and can always attract the top players. Iowa may be able to work hard and be well-coached, but I just don't think it will be enough against a team that's built to win national championships, not just conference ones.

Performances from Around the World



Week 11 NFL Breakdowns

As a summer junkie, I hate the idea that with each passing day, we’re getting closer to seeing temperatures in the minus, roads covered with ice and snow and people with 3 or more layers on to protect themselves from the cold. The forecast for the Calgary-Saskatchewan CFL West Final calls for blizzard-like conditions with a high of between -13 to -22.

Having said that, in breaking down some NFL matchups on Sportscall this morning, it hit me that we’re getting to a point in the season where we’re seeing a definite gap between the contenders and the pretenders. There aren’t too many teams in the middle bubble, but for those, the next couple of weeks could very well decide which direction they ultimately go.

Looking at the schedule for Week 11, there are plenty of matchups involving teams that can’t afford to lose without major consequences. A loss wouldn’t end either team’s season or chances at the playoffs, but it was certainly put them on a much bumpier path towards the playoff road. I wanted to breakdown a few of these matchups starting with one that we have on Team 1200 tonight.

Chicago Bears vs. Miami Dolphins

The Bears were not expected by many to be a playoff team this year. Even at 6-3, this squad doesn’t get a lot of respect for being a good football team. However, being tied with the Packers for the division lead after 9 games doesn’t mean they have a chance to take a deep breath just yet.

It’s imperative that they try and keep pace with the Packers. Even if they fail, as long as they stay within a game, a wild card spot should be theirs. As for the Dolphins, they don’t have enough to battle the Patriots or Jets, so the only thing they can count on is a wild card spot. If they lose tonight, their chances at that spot could be lost as well.

Oakland Raiders vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

The Raiders are a part of a large group of teams that have played extremely well and surpassed expected season win totals at the halfway point. The Steelers were always expected to be good once they got Ben Roethlisberger back in the fold, but still find themselves in a fight for the AFC North with the Baltimore Ravens.

The Raiders need to win in order to keep the lead in the AFC West and to avoid the Chargers catching them. I think once San Diego catches both the Chiefs and the Raiders, the Bolts will take the division. The Steelers need to win more to show the rest of the league that their numerous injuries will not stop them from winning football games.

Seattle Seahawks vs. New Orleans Saints

The NFC West is always bad and the Seahawks seem to always take advantage of three teams that can’t get their act together. But with the Rams within striking distance, the Seahawks can’t allow the Rams to get back into the race by losing a game and combining that with a Rams win.

The Saints have a couple of reasons as to why they need to win. First and foremost, they’re one game behind the Falcons in the NFC South. Secondly, with the NFC so strong this year, a team cannot sit back and think that 10 wins means an automatic entry to the playoffs via the wild card.

Atlanta Falcons vs. St. Louis Rams

We just talked about these two teams in the previous breakdown. The Falcons have the division lead right now, but with a loss against St. Louis, they would drop to 7-3 and would most likely find themselves in a three-way tie for the division lead as both New Orleans and Tampa have very winnable games.

The Rams can’t rely on winning a wild card spot because their record is so bad, but being only one game behind the Seahawks allows for them to get into the dance by winning a weak division. A loss to the Falcons combined with a Seahawks win vs. the Saints would be death and would just about ruin any chances of a magical season.

New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Both teams are 6-3 and on top of the NFC East. With 7 teams in the NFC right now with 6 or more win and only 6 playoff spots per conference, one of these 7 teams just cannot rely on a wild-card spot to help them make the playoffs.

A win by either Philly or New York will go a long way to creating the separation necessary to win the division and maybe even more importantly, avoiding the logjam that is bound to happen for the two NFC wild-card positions.

Wait…what’s that? You want me to give you a winner for all these games. Wasn’t it enough just to break them down? Alright, I’ll give you a quick thought on who’s going to win these games.

I think Chicago gets past Miami based on the strength of their defense vs. a Tyler Thigpen led Miami offence. Thigpen got it done for one afternoon, but to ask a thrd-stringer to lead you to victory back-to-back weeks is probably asking too much.

Pittsburgh beats Oakland soundly. The Raiders have had a nice season so far, but still don’t have enough talent to match up well against the Steelers. Look at the Raiders schedule and you’ll see that they haven’t really faced a bonafide Super Bowl contender yet. They’ll be exposed this week.

The Saints show the Seahawks why no one ever takes the NFC West division champ seriously by putting a good whooping on them. Reggie Bush comes back to the offence and I think Drew Brees and the rest of that group find themselves again in thumping Seattle.

Atlanta takes care of an under-talented Rams team. It’s a minor miracle that Sam Bradford has been able to lead this team to 4 wins, but at some point, injuries and a lack of talent will come back to bite you.

Finally, I think the magic from Monday night continues and the Eagles get past the Giants. Michael Vick was always able to run the football effectively, but the knock was that he couldn’t throw the football on a consistent basis. Now that he seems to have that facet of the game down as well, the question is: How do you stop this guy?

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November 16th Action

We had ourselves a great start to the week yesterday by going a perfect 3-for-3. I've always wanted to have that dream week in which I got every single pick right, but I've always fizzled out by Tuesday. Having just read that, I wouldn't blame you if you decided to go against every pick I made now, but this could be that magical week. You just never know...

Alright, three more picks with two of them being NHL and one of them being an NBA tilt. Let's get to the picks.

Atlanta Hawks (-2.5) vs. Indiana Pacers

I think bettors get a small line for a team in the Hawks that's had a lot of regular season success over the last couple of years, particularly against a team that's supposed to be near the bottom of the weak Eastern Conference once all 82 games are played. The Atlanta Hawks have so much more talent than the Pacers. It's a simple explanation but a correct one.

I also think the Pacers are still getting money thrown their way based on an unbelievable performance against the Denver Nuggets a week ago in which they scored 150+ points in regulation and 54 in one quarter by making 20-21 shots in the third quarter. It would be great for Pacers fans if they could constantly do that, but they just can't.

Philadelphia Flyers vs. Montreal Canadiens (over 5.5, +110)

Picking the over in a game which has a team coached by Jacques Martin usually isn't a very good suggestion, but I think we might see a more offensive-minded Habs team than we're used to seeing.

The Flyers dominated the Habs in the playoffs a year ago due to their size, strength and physicality as they plowed through the trapping style of the Habs. I think Montreal may try and make it more of a run-and-gun style of hockey game and use their speed and mobility to their advantage. If so, one of two things happens. Either the Habs get themselves a high-scoring and close victory or the Flyers run them out of their own building. Either way, lots of goals tonight.

Nashville Predators vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (over 5.5, +115)

Much like picking the over in a game where Jacques Martin is a coach of one of the teams, picking the over in a game involving the Toronto Maple Leafs doesn't seem like a very good idea either, but just because they don't score a lot of goals doesn't mean they don't give up a lot. J-S Giguere will get his third straight start and has given up four goals in each of the previous two.

Why I like the over so much (and the Preds as well) is because of their ability to include the defencemen into the offensive attack. In a recent game against Chicago, the Preds got all their regulation goals from defencemen as they went on to win 4-3.

Hmmm...picking the over for Jacques Martin and the Leafs on the same night? Never mind a magical week, this will be a magical night if it comes through...enjoy the games!

November 15th Action

It's a pretty busy night in the NHL for a Monday as the start of the week usually means a lower amount of games. I wanted to break down a couple of hockey games, but also wanted to touch on the Monday nighter in the NFL as we see a great NFC East rivalry renewed in the U.S. Capital.

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) vs. Washington Redskins

I just see this being a case of too much talent on the side of the Eagles combined with too much drama on the other side for the Redskins. Just on paper, the Eagles have the more complete roster and know how to play within the system preached by coach Andy Reid. On the other side, the Redskins are still learning the ropes of the system being implemented by Mike Shanahan.

I also think that the Donvoan McNabb vs. Mike/Kyle Shanahan saga from two weeks ago is something that's going to hang on to this team until McNabb is no longer a member of the Redskins. Not having McNabb out there for the final 2 minutes of a ball game just signalled to everyone that the Shanahan's do not believe in him. The problem is McNabb is so respected around the league and in the Redskins' locker room, the Shanahan's may have lost the room by making such a terrible error in judgment. All this negative talk surrounding the Redskins makes it easy to take the Eagles.

Vancouver Canucks vs. Buffalo Sabres (over 5.5, even)

The knock on the Canucks in the past was that they had the goaltending and the defence, but a glaring weakness when it came to scoring goals. Many nights, it was the Sedins with Alex Burrows and that's it. But the Canucks have proven over the first quarter of the season that they have the depth now at the forward position to get good production from at least two, if not three, lines per night.

On the other side, the Sabres were really hurt at the defensive position this off-season because of free agency. Buffalo has proven that they are going to have a hard time coping with the loss of Henrik Tallinder and Toni Lydman. The Sabres staff was hoping that Tyler Myers would step up even more from his Calder-winning campaign, but it hasn't quite worked out that way.

St. Louis Blues vs. Colorado Avalanche (over 5.5, +105)

The Blues were on fire to start the season thanks to improvement on defence and some guy named Jaroslav Halak. The Blues only gave up 17 goals in their first 12 games, but with injuries and a crash back down to earth, St. Louis has given up 16 goals in their last three. The injuries are plenty for the Blues defence right now as Carlo Colaiacovo, Roman Polak and Barrett Jackman are all out of the lineup.

As for the Avalanche, their up and down style leads to high-scoring games. In 16 games this year, they've scored 53 times and given up 50. That just about 6.5 goals a game on average. It makes for some exciting hockey for the fans, but I'm assuming some nightly mini heart attacks for Joe Sacco.

Great Saves of a Puck...and Newspaper?



November 13th College Football Picks

Another Saturday full of college football as we get closer to bowl season at the end of the month. We've hit a lull in the schedule as for the next couple of weeks, we won't really see any major marquee matchups or big rivalry games. So, for the next couple of weeks, I'm going to focus on picking teams that are looking not only to win, but also trying to put themselves in the best position for the BCS or bowl games.

Indiana Hoosiers vs. Wisconsin Badgers (-22)

It's always takes a little extra push from yourself to take a team not only to win, but to win by over three touchdowns, but the Badgers have enough weapons at the running back spot that they can completely run over their conference rival and win big in the process.

You know what you're going to get with Wisconsin football. It involves a physical, power-running game designed to wear down opponents and beat them into submission by the 4th quarter. They average 216 rushing yards a game and simply punish inferior opponents with time of possession. A 4-5 Indiana team that's 0-5 in conference this year should be the inferior opponent they need for a big win.

Utah Utes (-6) vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

If you're a consistent reader of the Saturday college football picks, then you know that I'm a big backer of the Utes because more often than not, they'll get you to the pay window. They certainly didn't do it last week against TCU, but they weren't favoured to. They're favoured this week against Notre Dame and I think public perception of their beating from TCU has a lot to do with their low number.

Losing by 40 will always put doubts into the public, but let's look at the opposition. The Irish are 4-5 on the year, will start a freshman quarterback due to injury and have lost 11 consecutive games against ranked opponents. Brian Kelly may one day turn this program around, but they're simply not good enough to match up against Utah.

Kansas Jayhawks vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers (-35)

Much like the Wisconsin game, it takes a bit of convincing in order to put money down on a team to not only win, but in this case, to win by over five touchdowns. However, this one is simple to figure out. Nebraska is a great football team and Kansas is a very bad football team. Seems very simplistic, but sometimes the simplest explanation is the best one.

The Huskers get back Taylor Martinez at quarterback and are such a dynamic team with him under center. The key to this matchup is how dominant the Huskers defence should be against an anemic Kansas offence. In 4 of 9 Kansas games this year, they've been held to 10 points or less. One of those games was a 6-3 loss to D-II North Dakota State. The blackshirts are a staple at Nebraska and the defence will rise to the occasion yet again.

Who Was the First to Think Hurdles Would Be a Good Idea?



Manny Pacquiao vs. Antonio Margarito

It’s been a while since I’ve been able to break down a major prize fight, but the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world will step through the ropes on Saturday night as Manny Pacquiao takes on Antonio Margarito in Dallas.

Most everyone knows Pacquiao because of the fact that he’s won 8 different world championships in an unbelievable career. You’ve probably heard of Margarito, but for the wrong reasons as he was in the headlines a couple of years ago for trying to sneak in a plaster-like substance into his hand wrappings before his fight against Shane Mosley. He was caught, forced to re-wrap his hands and subsequently lost in an upset to the smaller Mosley. Margarito was then suspended from boxing for a year because of cheating.

So, there’s plenty of incentive and hunger for Margarito to try and pull off the upset against Manny. Before the suspension, he was one of the most feared fighters in the world because of his aggressive, no-fear style that would eventually wear down his opponents. After the suspension, he seems to be a shell of his former self because of the shame, embarrassment and ridicule that came with cheating.

When talking about Manny Pacquiao, we can safely say that for the first time in his career, he may be coming into this fight slightly unprepared as his focus has been his political duties back in the Phillipines and signing off on many commitments that come with his world-wide celebrity.

All fighters show so much hunger as they make their way to the top and try to make this big dollars, but many of those who make it to the big time to cash in big checks eventually lose that hunger and it reflects in their fighting as they don’t seem to have the killer instinct that they once had. Could Pacquiao be falling into this trap? Looks like it, but I think he’s got an opponent on Saturday night that’s tailor-made for him.

Pacquiao has a distinct advantage when it comes to overall speed, be it hand speed or foot speed. He always has this advantage, but it’s clearly evident this time around. Margarito is someone that will consistently come forward, try to pin his opponent against the ropes or in the corner and make it so that the fight could be held in a phone booth.

Give credit to Manny’s management and handlers because they’ve done a great job at hand-picking opponents that have the same traits as Margarito over his last four fights. His last three opponents all were the same and Pacquiao was never challenged.

Ricky Hatton was KO’d in devastating fashion and was never the same boxer or person ever again as evident by his turn to drugs and alcohol. Miguel Cotto was never known for speed and was completely embarrassed by Manny. Joshua Clottey stood in front of him for 12 rounds, took a beating but wouldn’t go down.

To me, it’s not a question of if Manny wins, but how he wins. That will be decided by the durability of Margarito, but I suspect that Manny will force him to crumble in the second half of the fight. Prediction: Manny Pacquiao by referee stoppage in the 8th round.

The Good and the Bad of Sports



November 11th Sports Action

Alright, back to the real sports breakdowns after a very silly breakdown of a game show contestant yesterday. I love this time of year where I can choose a game from many different sports and give my two cents. That's exactly what I'll do this afternoon as I break down my favourite picks for the NFL tonight, an NHL matchup and even an NBA game.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Atlanta Falcons (pick)

It's a true toss-up according to the people in Vegas as the 6-2 Ravens take on the 6-2 Falcons. I agree that you have two really good football teams facing each other for the first Thursday night game of the season, but I think there's one major difference between the two that will allow me to be comfortable in choosing Baltimore.

Both teams have a good power running attack as the Ravens rely on Ray Rice/Willis McGahee and the Falcons look to Michael Turner. They both have young and talented quarterbacks with Joe Flacco passing for the Ravens and Matt Ryan in the ATL. Both even have a game-changing wide receiver as Flacco will look to Anquan Boldin and Ryan's favourite target is Roddy White.

But to me, the Ravens have the distinct edge when it comes to the talent level and experience of their defence. You can say that Ray Lewis and Ed Reed are past their prime, but when the Ravens need a big play, these two still have the ability to deliver in the clutch. The Falcons just don't have that game-changer on defence. Ravens win a physical, hard-fought battle.

Minnesota Wild (+105) vs. Atlanta Thrashers

On paper, there's not much to choose between the two teams, except for the edge that the Wild have in the goaltending department. While the Thrashers struggle to find some consistency with either Chris Mason or Ondrej Pavelec, the Wild can be comforted in knowing that Niklas Backstrom will always be there to give them solid play.

Backstrom is 5-1-1 with a 1.41 GAA over his last seven games for Minny. On the other side, Mason is 3-3-1 with a 4.23 GAA in his last seven. Mason's play may give us a big indication as to why the Thrashers have given up the most goals in the Eastern Conference. Take the more consistent team in the Wild.

Los Angeles Lakers (-3) vs. Denver Nuggets

Lakers haven't played well lately and neither have the Nuggets. The difference is that the Lakers are still finding ways to win, while the Nuggets are struggling at 4-4 to start the year after losing by 31 to the Indiana Pacers. In that game, the Nuggets gave up 54 points in the third quarter alone in allowing Indiana to shoot 20-21 from the field.

The Lakers simply have too much talent for any opponent they take on this year. More often than not, the reason they will lose games is not because their opponents beat them, it will be because they beat themselves.

Shootout Failures (with one make-up)



Wheel of Fortune Fails



Wheel of Fortune Girl is Not as Smart as You Think

I really can't believe I'm doing this, but with a couple of requests to break it all down and to fully explain my position on this, I guess the blog entry just had to be done. For those who think it's ridiculous to discuss this for more than 2 minutes, you're probably right, but I just have to get this off my chest.

I'm sure you've all seen the link by now of the Wheel of Fortune contestant who managed to solve the puzzle with all only one letter on the board. I've been sent the link about ten times and I had the same reaction the last time I saw it as when I saw it the first time. For those who may not have seen it, here's the video...



The woman in question may have shown her book-smarts by being able to solve the puzzle so quickly, but she showed a complete lack of business sense by not maximizing her profit and bad clock management by not using a prolonged streak of spins on the wheel to dominate wheel possession.

I think she also made a grave error in proving to her opponents just how strong of a competitor she was. Your typical Wheel of Fortune usually needs the puzzle to have only one letter left before they solve. They must have been panicking badly when they saw that kind of bravado.

You should hear some of the comments I'm getting from people when I don't share the same sort of amazement of her abilities like they do. Everything from "I'm greedy" to "Why can't you be happy for her?" or "Why don't you like it when someone shows that they're smarter than you?" I bet if those people read the following, they wouldn't say those things anymore.

Alright, on the first subject of maximizing profit, if she knew what the puzzle was after just one letter, why not try and get more money by spinning the wheel as opposed to just leaving a ton of money on the table by doing the hero-solve and having your 5 minutes of fame as the girl that solved a Wheel of Fortune board with only one letter?

I'm sure she wasn't thinking at the time that she would be interviewed by Fox News or that her video would have millions of hits on youtube, but it's obvious that she wanted to show off a little bit to everyone about her puzzle-solving abilities and I just think her clouded judgment probably cost her thousands of dollars.

As the wheel is spinning, she could have easily worked out in her head what letters are multiplied within this puzzle and what letters are on their own. So, if she landed on some small figure like $300, she could have used the letter "B" in about. But if she landed on the $5000 figure, she could have said the letter "t" or "g" that would have given her 15K in one shot.

I understand that the threat of "bankrupt" and "Lose a Turn" exist on the wheel and that you might lose your opportunity to solve the puzzle and get the points, but that's just got to be a risk that you're willing to take. I was talking to this with Dirty yesterday and he figured that she was just taking the sure money, much like taking three points on a chip-shot field goal as opposed to spinning the wheel and running the risk of losing out while pursuing 7 points for the touchdown.

I get that, but it would be like sending Peyton Manning out onto the field with an all-star NFL offence against a high school team defence and starting a drive with the ball first and 10 on the 20 yard line. You know that unless something catastrophic happens, the NFLer's will be able to get into the end zone and score the touchdown. But instead, Peyton decides to go with a run play that nets him about 5 yards, then tells the coach that he wants the field goal unit to come to attempt and make an 85 yard field goal. The kick is good and the crowd is going insane, but it's still nets only three points.

This is where the failure of clock management comes into play. It's only a 30-minute show, so you know there's only going to be so many puzzles in which your opponents can gain money and possibly win out to get to the bonus round. But why give them an opportunity at a couple more puzzles when you have the ability to draw the puzzle out for minutes, dominate the possession of the wheel and completely shut them out of the game?

Again, back to the Peyton analogy. The NFL offence can have its way with the high-schoolers and do whatever they want. But why give the opponents the ball after one play when you can pound the rock over and over again and leave them no time whatsoever to put up any points on the board?

Also, solving a puzzle with only one letter up is such a strong message to your opponents that you're too good of a competitor. With the way the game works, that will force the other two to realize that they cannot allow you a chance to get a crack at the wheel and/or solving the puzzle.

I can guarantee you that when she pulled that stunt, the other two completely changed their strategy right on the spot to try and win the game, and at the same time, make sure that Super Woman didn't win the game either. Why make it harder on yourself by flaunting yourself like that?

In closing, I think she did an amazing job by piecing together what the phrase would be just base off of one miniscule letter, but it's too bad that someone didn't remind her as the show went along that she's not only there to solve puzzles, but to win more coin than her opponents as well.

Alright, now that I've gotten that off my chest, I don't want to see, read or hear about this clip ever again. I promise that I'll talk about sports for at least the rest of the week. I'm getting sleepy...a couple more hours until "Wheel" comes on...

Trick Play and a Young "Andrew Ried"



Whole Lot of Blaming Going On

Rule 48.1 states that a lateral or blind-side hit to an opponent where the head is targeted and/or the principle point of contact is not permitted. How can such a small amount of words create such a big headache for everyone within the hockey world?

Well, don't blame the rule. Instead, give some of the blame to the people in charge of coming up with it and upholding the punishment for breaking the rule. Give some blame to the players as well for taking advantage of the rule and being hypocritical about it at the same time.

Alright, where to start...Well, It seemed like such a good idea at the time because the wording of the rule made it seem like such a black and white rule. However, the rule has proven to have so much grey area because the rule makers failed to take into account the speed of the game and the amount of bang-bang plays that we see in every single NHL game.

In some instances, players have mere milliseconds to come up with a decision. In such a short amount of time, players have to choose on whether to continue with their hit knowing that they could be crossing the line or to let up and risk giving the offensive player a scoring opportunity. Is that really fair? I don't think it is.
However, whether it's fair or not, it's up to the referees on the ice to punish those who violate the rule and if it's severe enough, it's up to Colin Campbell to give out a stiff enough fine or suspension to make players accountable for their actions. Doing that will give the rule some teeth that will scare players.

Uh oh! Am I really counting on the NHL to be able to handle the task of punishing their players in a competent fashion? Why did we ever think that the people handling discipline in this league would be able to handle the task of punishing players for violating this new rule? That's like putting faith in the girl that has cheated on you multiple times or faith in the smoker who says he's going to quit for the 100th time.

One of the first chances that the referees had to give this rule some teeth came in the Ottawa/Carolina game back early in October at Scotiabank Place. Nick Foligno was caught in a bang-bang play with Patrick Dwyer of the Hurricanes that resulted in Foligno hitting Dwyer in the head with a blindside hit.

Well, the referee failed to even call a penalty on the play. Alright, so the referee may have missed it, but with a thousand replays of the hit in about 12 hours, it clearly wouldn't be missed by Colin Campbell, so he'll punish Foligno, right? He punished him alright...with a fine. A fine? Way to put some teeth into that rule, Colin...

But then again, why did we ever expect his wishy-washy ways to stop just because of rule 48.1 being inserted into the rule book? I still have no idea how he comes up with some of the suspension lengths that he does. Since being with Lee on Sportscall, I've heard a whole bunch of different theories as to how Colin Campbell decides on suspension length.

Everything from picking a number out of a lottery drum to just deciding on it based on the first number that pops into his head. From my perspective, how can I argue that these people are wrong? None of us know what the process of determining length of suspension is, so it would be unfair to argue against those people despite the fact that their ideas are far-fetched and most likely inaccurate.

If it wasn't clear before, it's clear now that the NHL needs to have a concise and concrete policy on how suspension lengths are determined. It needs to be something that can be easily understood by everyone in the hockey world, whether it be the highest ranked management official to the fan with the cheapest seats in the arena.

Alright, so what about the role of the players in all of this? After all, weren't they all on board with signing off on this rule? They worked with the GM's to make sure that it was set to be enforced for the start of the year, so all that hard work to make sure it was in the rulebook means that they would be more willing to abide by it on the ice, right? Not so much.

We're still seeing guys taking cheap shots at one another and players taking advantage of their opponent in a prone and vulnerable position. The only difference is that referees are more willing to call them out on their nasty and dangerous play, which then turns into questions as to what they're being called for. A little bit hypocritical if you ask me since they wanted the rule in there, but I can understand the frustration since they're so invested emotionally and aren't really thinking about the bigger picture at the moment.

The one thing I don't think I hear enough about is the idea that players are putting their teammates into vulnerable positions to get violently hit because of the dreaded "suicide pass". Only a few years ago, players would be absolutely hammered by the media for leading a player into a vicious hit with a bad pass.

But somewhere along the way, there was a shift in the media from blaming the player for a bad pass/decision to blaming the hitter. It's probably because we've become so politically correct and worried about image as a society, it's hard to take the side of the person that's being villified for being violent and a cruel human being.

So, having said all that, I guess the blog can be summed up in just a few words. Don't blame the rule, blame all the people that have to enforce or adhere to the rule.

Zach Galifianakis from 1997



Top 5 2010-2011 MLB Free Agents

The World Series has come and gone and the people of San Francisco may just be ending their championship celebration. With Brian Wilson and others now thinking more about shaving the beard instead of making people fear it, I wanted to take a look at the Top 5 free agents that will be available in just a few days.

5) Victor Martinez, catcher

Martinez has struggled over the last couple of years in Boston to find the form that he showed in Cleveland which allowed him to get paid handsomely for his services. The thing that works in his favour is that catchers are just so hard to come by and Martinez fits the bill of not only a veteran catcher, but a guy that's capable of 90-100 RBI's when fully healthy and swinging well.

He won't hit for power like other catchers, but with a career batting average of .300 and coming off a season with 149 hits, he's easily someone that can be put into the power hitting positions of all Major League lineups.

4) Adrian Beltre, third base

After a disappointing campaign in 2009 in which he picked up only 8 homers and 44 RBI's, Beltre rebounded this season to hit 28 homers and 102 RBI's. That included 189 hits, 49 doubles and batting .321 on the year.

He also very valuable not only because of his offensive abilities, but also due to his consistency in the field. With only 19 errors in 154 games played, Beltre can be counted on in clutch defensive situtations.

3) Jayson Werth, right field

After a crushing 2009 season in which the Phillie picked up 36 homers and 99 RBI's, Werth tailed off just slightly with 27 homers and 85 RBI's. While his power numbers may not be as high as the year before, Werth was able to show more consistency at the plate this year with a major increase in batting average from .268 to .296 and a huge jump in doubles from 26 to 46.

He'll also be able to drive a hard price because of his representation, Scott Boras. Boras has let the GM's in baseball know that his client is a "franchise-player" and that he will be looking for that kind of money. He may not be the first to sign this off-season, but someone will pony up eventually.

2) Carl Crawford, left field

Crawford is the first of many Tampa Bay Rays that are going to be put in a spot where they have to chase the money somewhere else because the team can't afford the massive bump in pay.

Crawford represents the dream lead-off hitter that will average close to 200 hits per season and about 50-60 steals per season. Let's not forget that he also will had 90 RBI's last season and batted .307 last season while averaging close to .300 for her career.

1) Cliff lee, pitcher

This is a no-brainer after the kind of year he had for both the Seattle Mariners and the Texas Rangers. Never mind that he was bested twice in the World Series by Tim Lincecum because he was the best pitcher that the American League had to offer in 2010.

Don't look at his win-loss record either as 12-9 wouldn't wow a lot of people. What should make people believe was his 7 complete games, his overall ERA of 3.18 and a ridiculous strikeout-to-walk ratio of over 10:1. The question will be whether the over-the-top offer from the Yankees will be enough to tempt him to move from the American League champs to the pinstripers in the Bronx.

The Good and the Bad: NFL First Half

The 1 o'clock games are in the books and as I scrolled through the NFL standings, I realized that most teams have now been able to play the full first-half of their season. With that, I wanted to talk about a couple of surprisingly good teams and a couple of surprisingly bad teams.

SURPRISINGLY GOOD

1) Kansas City Chiefs

As I write this, they're in progress against the Oakland Raiders, so they could be either 6-2 or 5-3, but the point is that they're at a win total that most people would have predicted for the full season and not just half.

There was excitement about this team because of the 1-2 punch at running back with Thomas Jones/Jamaal Charles, but no one could have expected how dominant they could be. They've allowed the Chiefs to be tops in the NFL in rushing, and with that, it allows for KC to dominate time of possession, keep defences on the field and grind them out.

2) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

A lot of people thought that the Bucs winning 5 games for the season was unlikely, but at 5-3, Raheem Morris has this team in the hunt for an NFC playoff spot. Are they the best team in the NFC as the head coach proclaims? Of course not, but they're way better than people would have expected.

The biggest thing helping this team is their ability on defence to produce takeaways and do something with them. They have 21 total takeaways with 6 of those being brought back for touchdowns, so the Bucs are benefitting from points created by their defence. Those points are so valuable in a ball game and it's allowed them to not only stay in games, but to steal them as well.

SURPRISINGLY BAD

1) Dallas Cowboys

It has to start here, doesn't it? Even though I'm writing this in advance of their Sunday nighter against the Packers, this team is bad whether it's 1-7 or 2-6. A year that was filled with so much promise has been unbelievably disappointing and will no doubt cost a few people within the organization to lose their jobs.

When you look at the statistics, there's a couple of things that stick out. Being near the top in total penalties is not a surprise, but being near the bottom in rushing with the talent that they have at the running back spot is very surprising. But to me, the biggest problem with this team is that the big players have just not made big plays all year. You need your superstars to be game-changers and too often, they've been on the field but have been bland, generic and many times, invisible.

2) Cincinnati Bengals

I feel like such a tool for singing the praises of the Bengals in the pre-season. I looked at this team on paper and thought that they were a lock to be near the top of the AFC standings, not the bottom. Many people will point to the Ocho/T.O. combination as the reason for their troubles just because of reputation, but it's not them.

Their defence was supposed to be a juggernaut, but instead, they've been just middle-of-the-road and their offence is just not good enough to overcome a defence that can only show up one out of three drives. The fact that they have 6 sacks in 7 games ahead of their Monday nighter against Pittsburgh is just embarassing.

November 7th NFL Picks

My apologies for lagging on blog entries as opposed to video ones. There's just been a lot of things going on around here and I fell behind, but with my Sunday pretty free, I'll be putting in a couple of football thoughts, a major thought on the ineptitude of the NHL when it comes to handing out punishments and My Top 5 MLB Free Agents.

But we start with my three top picks for this afternoon's NFL matchups. If you've read any of my NFL picks in the past, you'll know that I'm a big fan of putting money on teams that have proven to be winners. I can't stand the idea of losing money because of betting on losing teams, so I've chosen three teams that have proven to be winners this season, last season or for the last decade.

New Orleans Saints (-7) vs. Carolina Panthers

The Saints have certainly had their struggles this year after winning the Super Bowl a year ago, but I think getting a big win at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers last Sunday night will really go a long way to them cementing themselves again as threats to repeat as champs. They showed a lot of resolve by coming from a halftime deficit to win that game.

I think we get trapped sometimes into talking about this Saints team like they're 0-8 when in fact, they're 5-3. They still have the 3rd best defence in the NFL and they take on a Panthers team today that's 1-6 and have the worst offence in the NFL. The running game is in shambles and Matt Moore will have to face a Saints secondary that gets back Tracy Porter and Jabari Greer.

New England Patriots (-5) vs. Cleveland Browns

Much is being made about the fact that the Browns are coming off a win against the New Orleans Saints and have now had two weeks to prepare for the New England Patriots. There's also a lot of talk about how much game planning Eric Mangini can do because of his knowledge of the Patriots and how Bill Belichick thinks. I get all that, but I think it comes down to one 1-on-1 matchup.

The one position where the Patriots have an enormous advantage is at the quarterback spot. Tom Brady has done it all in such a short amount of time in the NFL, while Colt McCoy will be happy to get over the 100 yard mark in passing today. This is the key difference and why the Patriots will continue to roll.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+9.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons

Everyone is jumping on the Falcons bandwagon as the boys from the ATL have had two weeks to prepare for the Bucs. But a few things have me believing that the Buccaneers keep this game competitive and possibly win outright and pull off yet another upset.

The Bucs' secondary can do enough to contain Roddy White so that he doesn't become a game-breaker. Josh Freeman can do some damage against a weak Falcons secondary that's 27th in the NFL in pass defence. LeGarrette Blount has 192 yards rushing in the last two games to give Tampa a run threat. Lastly, the Bucs are 3-0 on the road this year and are 4-0 in games decided by three points or less. Too many positives not to take the Bucs.

What You May Have Missed: Breeders Cup



Hmmmm....



Friday Fails



Premature Celebrations



All Overs

We're looking at over/unders tonight and more specifically, the over, in three specific games. In some ways, the over/under can be easier to figure out than the actual winner of the game. If you know the style and injury list of each team, you can pretty much play the game out in your head. I would definitely use the over/under option a lot more in hockey where many games are considered coin-flips. Case in point: 6 out of the 9 games tonight have an underdog of +115 or less. Let's take a look at the overs for tonight...

New York Islanders vs. Carolina Hurricanes (Over 5.5, -120)

The injury problems that the Islanders have endured since the start of the season have seemed to finally catch up to them. With three defencemen out, the already rail-thin Islanders d-corps has been exposed for its lack of depth by giving up 18 goals in the last 4 games.

It's also an indictment on how poorly Rick Dipietro has been this season as his GAA is one of the worst in the NHL at 3.75. The only danger here is that Cam Ward has a tremendous game against the Islanders, but with the way things are going on the Island, the Canes may be able to get to 6 goals by themselves.

Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Dallas Stars (Over 5.5, -125)

The Penguins have struggled with the power-play over the last 5 games as they've gone 0-22, but the Dallas Stars might just be the cure to what ails them. The Stars have struggled with their penalty kill so far this year and was the achilles heel even during their 6 game streak without a loss to start the season.

Both teams are also suffering with poor starting goaltending from their supposed number ones. Marc-Andre Fleury is 1-5 on the year for the Penguins, while Kari Lehtonen has come back down to earth after a good start by going 1-4 with a 3.42 GAA.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Anaheim Ducks (Over 5.5, -130)

The formula for goals in this game is simple. The Ducks will inevitably go to the penalty box because they can't control themselves and the Lightning will take advantage of their power play chances. The Ducks have 262 penalty minutes in 12 games and the Lightning are 23.9% on the power play this year.

This might be a good game to get the two-pick parlay going because the Lightning are playing so well under Guy Boucher. On the other side, the Ducks are bad enough that the whispers of Randy Carlyle being replaced are starting to be heard. I just never know what this Ducks team is going to do on any given night. Lots of talent, but seemingly no structure.

Bonus Game:

Detroit Red Wings vs. Calgary Flames (Over 5.5, +105)

The Wings are flying again with a 6-2-1 start to the year and they're scoring goals at a good clip as well. 30 goals in 9 games and 16 in their last four. On the other side, the Flames have given up 17 goals in their last three games, including a 7-2 drubbing at the hands of the Caps.

Some Freudian Slips



Randy Moss Destinations

In the wake of Randy Moss being waived by the Vikings last night, there is much speculation as to which team will take a chance on acquiring the services of Moss after Minny's shocking move. Adam Schefter of ESPN tweeted his five best guesses and I wanted to break down each of those teams.

1) St. Louis Rams

On paper, this would seem like a perfect move for a team that has a chance to make it into the post-season in a weak NFC West Division and is in desperate need of a wide receiver for rookie Sam Bradford because of numerous injuries suffered this season.

However, I can't see this happening because of the baggage that he would bring to the table. I know, great insight into the Moss situation, Phil...I get it, but hear me out first. The Rams have a good, young nucleus that's forming quicker than anyone would have predicted. They don't need a surly veteran to come in and possibly disrupt the chemistry being formed in that locker room amongst a young core of players that will be together for years. It's not worth the risk.

2) Oakland Raiders

Just like the Rams, it seems like a good fit on paper because Moss would give the Raiders the deep threat they would need to complement the newly-found running game led by Darren McFadden. It might just put them over the top in the race to win the AFC West.

However, two things work against this theory. The obvious one is that he's already come and gone with this franchise once before. I understand that most people don't like to give Al Davis credit for anything, but I'm certain that he knows the old adage, "Fool me one, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me." The second thing is that the timing doesn't work since the Raiders are coming off two impressive weeks offensively where they scored a combined 92 points in win vs. Denver and Seattle.

3) Washington Redskins

Of course, the Redskins would be a favourite to pick up his services. It's well-documented how much owner Daniel Snyder loves his big-name, big-ticket free-agent acquisitions and Moss would fit that bill.

A couple of things hinder this. First off, Snyder has now forced himself to make all football decisions through Mike Shanahan, so if Shanahan doesn't want him on the team, then he's not going to be a Redskin. Second, the Redskins find themselves too far back to realistically look at the playoffs. Why bother adding more payroll to a team that is going nowhere?

4) Seattle Seahawks

Now we're getting into teams that make a lot of sense. This to me is the best suggestion out of the 5 for a few reasons. The Seahawks need all the help they can get despite being a division leader and being over 500. They've been really fortunate yet again to be a member of the weakest division in football.

They may have found a 1-2 running back tandem with Marshawn Lynch and Justin Forsett, but Moss would represent a deep threat that this team just doesn't have right now with the receivers they have in place. Secondly, head coach Pete Carroll has plenty of experience in coaching egotistical guys like Moss from his days back at USC. As long as he feels comfortable with Moss, I have full belief that he could get the most out of Moss.

5) Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs make sense to me as well because Moss would give them the aerial threat that they just don't possess right now. They have a great running back tandem in Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones, but Matt Cassel doesn't have a consistent receiver to throw to.

They also have a great trio of coaches that can help get the most out of Moss on the field and keep him in check off the field. Head Coach Todd Haley has done a great job with this team with the help of offensive co-ordinator Charlie Weis and defensive co-ordinator Romeo Crennel.

I'm haunted alright after that second video...



Houston Texans-Indianapolis Colts Preview

For most, a Houston Texans-Indianapolis Colts Monday night game seems pretty lacklustre and I would fully understand someone thinking, "You know, this might be a good night to take the wife out, especially with the Sens playing the Leafs tomorrow night..."

I get what those people are saying, but to me, there's a ton of storylines heading into this game tonight that makes me want to be in front of my TV with the Team 1200 audio in the background.

It seems like ages ago since the Texans were able to beat the Colts on opening weekend. Arian Foster had an enormous day running for 231 yards and the Texans were being hailed by some as the team to watch, much like the Saints were last year in winning the Super Bowl. Since that game, both teams have had their ups and downs, but there's a quiet constant about the makeup of these two teams.

For the Colts, the major theme has been about injuries. They're without their Pro Bowl tight end Dallas Clark, who's out for the season, their top two running backs in Joseph Addai and Donald Brown, and wide receiver Austin Collie. And yet, there's no thoughts of whether this team can get the job done. As long as they have Peyton Manning, they have a great chance to win. Can you think of any other team in the NFL that could withstand losing this much talent on offence and still win?

On the other side, the Texans started out strong, but have since come back down to earth and the same questions are being asked of them as in past years. Is this team good enough to finally make the playoffs or are they going to be just a little bit short? My guess would be on the latter.

Arian Foster was a nice story in Week 1 and had a couple of 100 yard games after opening day, but much like the franchise that he plays for, he needs to step up and show that he's not just a one-start wonder. A telling stat that might suggest that he'll be a flash-in-the-pan: After his opening day start with 33 carries and 231 yards, he's been limited to only 19 carries or less in every other start.

The defence also has to find a way to step up. Considering how many former first round picks are in the starting 11, it's disgraceful that the Texans would find themselves as the worst defence in the NFL. Giving up 410 yards of offence a game is not going to allow a team to win many ball games.

It would be a huge win for the Texans to win on the road in Indy and take both regular-season meetings against a team that has dominated the AFC South for so long, but I just can't see the Colts allowing this team to do that. Much like Big Brother always getting the best of Little Brother in the backyard fight, the Colts will come out on top tonight.

You can catch all the action on Team 1200 tonight with the pre-game at 8 and the kickoff at 8:30 or so.

The Absurd From the Weekend