featuring Team 1200's Phil Melanson
We're looking at over/unders tonight and more specifically, the over, in three specific games. In some ways, the over/under can be easier to figure out than the actual winner of the game. If you know the style and injury list of each team, you can pretty much play the game out in your head. I would definitely use the over/under option a lot more in hockey where many games are considered coin-flips. Case in point: 6 out of the 9 games tonight have an underdog of +115 or less. Let's take a look at the overs for tonight...
New York Islanders vs. Carolina Hurricanes (Over 5.5, -120)
The injury problems that the Islanders have endured since the start of the season have seemed to finally catch up to them. With three defencemen out, the already rail-thin Islanders d-corps has been exposed for its lack of depth by giving up 18 goals in the last 4 games.
It's also an indictment on how poorly Rick Dipietro has been this season as his GAA is one of the worst in the NHL at 3.75. The only danger here is that Cam Ward has a tremendous game against the Islanders, but with the way things are going on the Island, the Canes may be able to get to 6 goals by themselves.
Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Dallas Stars (Over 5.5, -125)
The Penguins have struggled with the power-play over the last 5 games as they've gone 0-22, but the Dallas Stars might just be the cure to what ails them. The Stars have struggled with their penalty kill so far this year and was the achilles heel even during their 6 game streak without a loss to start the season.
Both teams are also suffering with poor starting goaltending from their supposed number ones. Marc-Andre Fleury is 1-5 on the year for the Penguins, while Kari Lehtonen has come back down to earth after a good start by going 1-4 with a 3.42 GAA.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Anaheim Ducks (Over 5.5, -130)
The formula for goals in this game is simple. The Ducks will inevitably go to the penalty box because they can't control themselves and the Lightning will take advantage of their power play chances. The Ducks have 262 penalty minutes in 12 games and the Lightning are 23.9% on the power play this year.
This might be a good game to get the two-pick parlay going because the Lightning are playing so well under Guy Boucher. On the other side, the Ducks are bad enough that the whispers of Randy Carlyle being replaced are starting to be heard. I just never know what this Ducks team is going to do on any given night. Lots of talent, but seemingly no structure.
Bonus Game:
Detroit Red Wings vs. Calgary Flames (Over 5.5, +105)
The Wings are flying again with a 6-2-1 start to the year and they're scoring goals at a good clip as well. 30 goals in 9 games and 16 in their last four. On the other side, the Flames have given up 17 goals in their last three games, including a 7-2 drubbing at the hands of the Caps.
In the wake of Randy Moss being waived by the Vikings last night, there is much speculation as to which team will take a chance on acquiring the services of Moss after Minny's shocking move. Adam Schefter of ESPN tweeted his five best guesses and I wanted to break down each of those teams.
1) St. Louis Rams
On paper, this would seem like a perfect move for a team that has a chance to make it into the post-season in a weak NFC West Division and is in desperate need of a wide receiver for rookie Sam Bradford because of numerous injuries suffered this season.
However, I can't see this happening because of the baggage that he would bring to the table. I know, great insight into the Moss situation, Phil...I get it, but hear me out first. The Rams have a good, young nucleus that's forming quicker than anyone would have predicted. They don't need a surly veteran to come in and possibly disrupt the chemistry being formed in that locker room amongst a young core of players that will be together for years. It's not worth the risk.
2) Oakland Raiders
Just like the Rams, it seems like a good fit on paper because Moss would give the Raiders the deep threat they would need to complement the newly-found running game led by Darren McFadden. It might just put them over the top in the race to win the AFC West.
However, two things work against this theory. The obvious one is that he's already come and gone with this franchise once before. I understand that most people don't like to give Al Davis credit for anything, but I'm certain that he knows the old adage, "Fool me one, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me." The second thing is that the timing doesn't work since the Raiders are coming off two impressive weeks offensively where they scored a combined 92 points in win vs. Denver and Seattle.
3) Washington Redskins
Of course, the Redskins would be a favourite to pick up his services. It's well-documented how much owner Daniel Snyder loves his big-name, big-ticket free-agent acquisitions and Moss would fit that bill.
A couple of things hinder this. First off, Snyder has now forced himself to make all football decisions through Mike Shanahan, so if Shanahan doesn't want him on the team, then he's not going to be a Redskin. Second, the Redskins find themselves too far back to realistically look at the playoffs. Why bother adding more payroll to a team that is going nowhere?
4) Seattle Seahawks
Now we're getting into teams that make a lot of sense. This to me is the best suggestion out of the 5 for a few reasons. The Seahawks need all the help they can get despite being a division leader and being over 500. They've been really fortunate yet again to be a member of the weakest division in football.
They may have found a 1-2 running back tandem with Marshawn Lynch and Justin Forsett, but Moss would represent a deep threat that this team just doesn't have right now with the receivers they have in place. Secondly, head coach Pete Carroll has plenty of experience in coaching egotistical guys like Moss from his days back at USC. As long as he feels comfortable with Moss, I have full belief that he could get the most out of Moss.
5) Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs make sense to me as well because Moss would give them the aerial threat that they just don't possess right now. They have a great running back tandem in Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones, but Matt Cassel doesn't have a consistent receiver to throw to.
They also have a great trio of coaches that can help get the most out of Moss on the field and keep him in check off the field. Head Coach Todd Haley has done a great job with this team with the help of offensive co-ordinator Charlie Weis and defensive co-ordinator Romeo Crennel.
For most, a Houston Texans-Indianapolis Colts Monday night game seems pretty lacklustre and I would fully understand someone thinking, "You know, this might be a good night to take the wife out, especially with the Sens playing the Leafs tomorrow night..."
I get what those people are saying, but to me, there's a ton of storylines heading into this game tonight that makes me want to be in front of my TV with the Team 1200 audio in the background.
It seems like ages ago since the Texans were able to beat the Colts on opening weekend. Arian Foster had an enormous day running for 231 yards and the Texans were being hailed by some as the team to watch, much like the Saints were last year in winning the Super Bowl. Since that game, both teams have had their ups and downs, but there's a quiet constant about the makeup of these two teams.
For the Colts, the major theme has been about injuries. They're without their Pro Bowl tight end Dallas Clark, who's out for the season, their top two running backs in Joseph Addai and Donald Brown, and wide receiver Austin Collie. And yet, there's no thoughts of whether this team can get the job done. As long as they have Peyton Manning, they have a great chance to win. Can you think of any other team in the NFL that could withstand losing this much talent on offence and still win?
On the other side, the Texans started out strong, but have since come back down to earth and the same questions are being asked of them as in past years. Is this team good enough to finally make the playoffs or are they going to be just a little bit short? My guess would be on the latter.
Arian Foster was a nice story in Week 1 and had a couple of 100 yard games after opening day, but much like the franchise that he plays for, he needs to step up and show that he's not just a one-start wonder. A telling stat that might suggest that he'll be a flash-in-the-pan: After his opening day start with 33 carries and 231 yards, he's been limited to only 19 carries or less in every other start.
The defence also has to find a way to step up. Considering how many former first round picks are in the starting 11, it's disgraceful that the Texans would find themselves as the worst defence in the NFL. Giving up 410 yards of offence a game is not going to allow a team to win many ball games.
It would be a huge win for the Texans to win on the road in Indy and take both regular-season meetings against a team that has dominated the AFC South for so long, but I just can't see the Colts allowing this team to do that. Much like Big Brother always getting the best of Little Brother in the backyard fight, the Colts will come out on top tonight.
You can catch all the action on Team 1200 tonight with the pre-game at 8 and the kickoff at 8:30 or so.