Anyone who knows me knows how much of a boxing and MMA fan that I am....if you don't, you do now and you know how elated I was to hear the news come out late last night that Manny Pacquiao and Miguel Cotto are going to hook up for a superfight at the MGM Grand in Vegas in November....
Since Manny fights regularly at 135 or 140 pounds and Cotto has fought regularly at 140/147, the two have agreed to a catch weight of 145 pounds, so with that in mind, let's break this fight down:
SPEED/QUICKNESS
You have to give the edge automatically to the smaller fighter, but the edge is so vast for Pacquiao here.....Manny's speed was enough to absolutely dominate Oscar De La Hoya at 147 and then Ricky Hatton in less than two rounds earlier this summer at 140 pounds....This will be the major problem for Cotto and he'll have to try and neutralize this speed edge by trying to get the fight into a "phone-booth" type of war....a lot easier said than done...
Advantage: Pacquiao
DEFENSE
The speed and quickness go hand in hand with defensive ability....Pacquiao is so elusive with his head movement and overall footwork.....Oscar De La Hoya had such a problem with trying to catch Pacquiao that he and his corner threw in the towel after eight rounds....Hatton had so much problems in the round and a half that he hit Pacquiao only a handful of times in a round and a half....
On the other side, Cotto is the kind of guy that makes for great TV and PPV fights, but will be more of a sitting target for Manny....defensively, he knows how to cover up and make as little of a target as possible, but he has a bad tendency of just standing still instead of bobbing and weaving....problem for Cotto is that he can't stand still in this fight or else Pacquiao will just tee off and it won't last long....
Advantage: Pacquiao
POWER
The naturally heavier guy more often than not gets the edge by default, but in this case, it's not so clear cut....
Because of his great hand speed, Pacquiao offers elusive knockout power....he relies on the punch that his opponent never sees coming to do the major damage....Ricky Hatton never saw that punch coming a couple months ago and was put to sleep, but as much as he dominated Oscar De La Hoya at 145 pounds, he never put DLH down in that fight...
For Cotto, if he can get the flow of the fight to turn into a brawl inside a phone-booth, he wears out opponents with vicious body shots and big combinations....but he doesn't have the one-punch knockout power that can change a fight or even end it....hell, he never hurt Joshua Clottey in his last fight even though he scored a knockdown...
Advantage: Pacquiao
JABMiguel Cotto is fundamentally sound in the sense that he uses the jab and builds everything around it....so it's a big weapon for him in fights...in his last fight against Joshua Clottey, he managed to knock down someone who has never been knocked down in his career on a jab....the jab is not meant to be powerful, but if you can knock someone down that has a granite chin just on a jab, it's a nice little weapon to have....
In Pacquiao's case, trainer Freddie Roach has tried to preach the idea of using the jab as a tool for the other punches and in the last handful of fights, Pacquiao has embraced the idea and has had great success for it....but if it were to become a pure brawl, I have my doubts as to whether he can stick to that plan or if he reverts back to his wild-man days where everything would start behind his straight left as a southpaw....
Advantage: Cotto
CHIN
This one is hard to judge because we really haven't seen Pacquiao in troubled situations lately....he just doesn't get hit all that often anymore, but 2 of his career losses were by knockout in the 3rd round....they were early in his career, but the KO's are still there...
For Cotto, he was knocked out by Antonio Margarito last year, but the issue surrounding that is whether or not Margarito used a plaster of paris like substance in the wraps to make his hands that much harder....I think Margarito was cheating at the time, so I will give Cotto the benefit of the doubt here.....he held up well against Clottey last month amongst a barrage of big punches, but he's had problems with his chin against lesser opponents in the past....
Advantage: N/A
INTANGIBLESPacquiao is coming off the two biggest wins of his career by far and in dominating fashion....he couldn't be any more confident coming into the fight, but is there the danger here that he takes Cotto for granted, looks past him and sets his sights on Floyd Mayweather too early?
For Cotto, he's been in big slugfests 2 of his last 3 fights....the loss to Margarito took away his invincibility despite the fact that Margarito probably cheated.....he was lucky to come away with a decision victory against Joshua Clottey in a fight where he was badly cut and battered at times....does he enough gas left in the tank to take on the best pound-for-pound fighter in the sport right now?
INITIAL PICK
Manny Pacquiao by stoppage in 8 rounds
November 14th can't come soon enough for me!
A little bonus before I go and plus I miss hockey too much already....
The top 2 feature Ottawa Senators....so enjoy!