I get a lot of questions about my various tweets on sports betting...I got a lot of comments about picking Detroit to win by 2 last night...
On that specific pick, I just figured that Detroit would play very desperate....combine that with San Jose playing with a lack of urgency...
But I get comments about how I take baseball teams to win by 2 instead of just winning the game...so people ask why I take the extra risk...
Here's the quick math of it...trust me, it's not that complicated, but really, if you don't want to look at numbers, just skip to the end...
The average MLB team will have about 20-30% of their regular season games be 1-run games and 20-30% of their total wins will be by 1 run....
Therefore, 70-80% of the total wins for a MLB team will be by 2 runs or more...and at times, a lot of these games might not even be close...
By betting the extra run, you'll be getting higher value, but taking on added risk....but if you're getting more than 20-30% better value...
For example, if I'm getting -160 to take the Jays by 1, but +110 by 2+, it's a value difference of over 5 bucks for every 10 dollars wagered
So...most games will end with a gap of 2+ runs...you'll get better value 4 betting a team to win by 2+...if they win by only 1, it's unlucky
Wow! Didn't realize how hard that would be to explain at 140 characters at a time...my head hurts! Well then...who am I picking tonight? :-)