I understand the excitement going through Miami and NBA Basketball in general. Now that LeBron, D-Wade and Chris Bosh have all signed their 6-year deals, we can truly break down if this team vaults over everyone in the Eastern Conference and gets everyone not only one championship, but multiple championships as well.
The way I look at it, there are three reasons why this might not go as well as everyone expects. Hard to imagine that three of the Top 10 players in the NBA would sign with one team and yet, there would be three reasons to think it may not work, but let me explain:
1) Lack of Depth
Everyone has pointed to this already, but the point can’t be made enough. The Heat have gone out and spent close to all their all cap money on three players. They have one more signed, so they have four players on their roster right now and need to sign 9-11 more players. Unless they go crazy by spending way more than the soft-cap suggests and paying a hefty tax, these players will have to make the minimum. I can see a couple of players taking a major discount to win a championship and have the ability to say they were a part of the Miami Heat, but not all of them will.
2) Stiffer Competition in the Eastern Conference
Everyone who thinks it can work in Miami points to the success that the Boston Celtics had when they put together the Big 3 of Ray Allen, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett. Good theory until you dig a little deeper and see that the Eastern Conference was so weak. Only 3 teams in the East during the 2007-2008 season had 50 wins or more. Hell, only 6 teams in that conference had a .500 record or better. The 8 seed in that conference that year made the playoffs with a record of 37-45!
Fast-forward to the 2010-2011 season and we see a much stronger Eastern Conference. The Celtics still have the big 3 in place...they’re an older and slower version, but still have enough talent to repeat their finals result from this past year. The Chicago Bulls are quietly making themselves into a contender with some great off-season acquisitions. The Orlando Magic will be strong again led by Dwight Howard.
If the Heat make it through despite having the weakest bench, they will have truly earned it. They will have to beat a couple of good teams just to get out of their conference and then a strong team out of the West.
3) Egos
This is the one aspect I’m worried about mentioning because everything you hear or read suggests that the 3 are great friends and wouldn’t allow ego and spotlight time to get in the way of their friendship or even winning.
But all 3 have become accustomed to being the big guy in their respective cities. Will they be able to handle the idea of sharing the spotlight with each other? Only time will tell.
I don’t want to damper the excitement that anyone would be feeling, but I also don’t want to go around and anoint a team with a crown that they haven’t earned yet either.