The NBA season tips off tonight and all the anticipation of what the Big 3 in Miami can do will end as they play in the very first game of the 2010-2011 schedule against the Boston Celtics. I think this can be an unbelievable basketball team down the road, but with such a weak bench for this season, I think the Heat come up short in their quest to win it all.
I wanted to look at the "total regular season wins" over/under category today in breaking down how 4 teams are going to do. I believe three of these teams will have better than expected seasons and the team from the Great White North is going to be even worse than the Toronto media would have you believe. We'll start with the winners first...
Boston Celtics (Over 54.5 wins - +110)
Only a few years ago, this franchise started the trend of having a Big 3 come together with the common goal of winning a championship. Flash forward to the present and all the talk out of Beantown now is that Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen are over the hill.
This may be true, but the big thing I liked about their off-season was the additions of Shaquille O'Neal and Jermaine O'Neal to solidify the depth inside. At times, it seemed as though Kendrick Perkins was left to do all the tough work in the paint by himself. Combine the added depth with the idea that their division is still so weak and you get a team that should win more than 54 times.
Phoenix Suns (Over 41.5 wins - +105)
I know, Steve Nash talked about his team in a negative way when asked about the idea of the Suns being a playoff team, but this isn't about whether they'll make the playoffs. It's about whether they can win 42 games or more. Amare Stoudamire is gone, but Steve Nash leads a group of players that all have the same traits of not being flashy, but always bringing steady contributions.
Utah Jazz (Over 49.5 wins - EVEN)
Everyone is looking to the Jazz to have a down year after Carlos Boozer left to go to Chicago, but don't discount the addition of Al Jefferson to replace him. Plus, having one of the best point guards in the game in Deron Williams and one of the best coaches in the game in Jerry Sloan will always allow for this team to be better than competitive.
Toronto Raptors (Under 26.5 wins - -120)
I hope Raptors fans are emotionally ready for what should be a trainwreck of a season. This roster is being compared by some to their expansion season, but during that first year, at least the excitement of having NBA basketball in their city was enough to allow for them to swallow the constant losing.
Not this time around. The city of Toronto is used to having an NBA team and won't stomach what looks to be more like a EuroLeague team. Simply put: Where are they going to get scoring from if Bosh and Turkoglu are gone? Last in the Eastern Conference is a distinct possibility and last overall wouldn't be surprising either.