It’s a busy night in the NHL with 11 games to sort through tonight. You would think that I would have plenty of opportunities to find good value in trying to pick a good-paying winner. Well, it didn’t quite work out that way. The odds-makers in Vegas have had enough time now to dissect every single team and get a good sense of each team’s strengths and weaknesses.
Notice how I mentioned the idea of good value in the first sentence. It’s really a crapshoot on calling a winner in most hockey games. Especially with the introduction of the shootout to create a winner, I just don’t see a point to go after the “sure bet” because in the long run, you won’t come out ahead. So, all year long, I’m going to be taking chances with underdogs based on value. You’ll see what I’m talking about in a second.
New York Rangers (+135) vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
Here’s a perfect example of taking a stab at value for a straight-up win. Most of the time, you’ll find the odds for hockey games will be in the pick-‘em range. Tonight’s action with 11 games only offers up 4 teams that are bigger underdogs than +105. This is Vegas telling you that these games are basically coin-flips. Hell, the odds on the coin toss at the Super Bowl are the same every year, -105 for both sides.
The Leafs are over-valued due to their hot start. If the projections for this team are correct, eventually there will have to be a drop-off in their play. With the Leafs a heavy favourite tonight, I think it’s a good idea to try and be ahead of the curve and get some value in taking the opposition while the Leafs still have the aura of an indestructible force.
Dallas Stars (+105) vs. Florida Panthers
Nobody expected the Stars to have as good of a start as they’ve had by going 4-1. They would be 5-0 if they knew how to stop the opposition on the penalty kill. Luckily, they take on an under-talented Panthers team that has been terrible on the power play to start the season.
However, I’m not taking the Stars here because of the penalty kill situation. Much like the Rangers, I’m taking them here on the strength of their value. Here’s a perfect example of the power of perception. The Leafs are off to a 4-0-1 start with 9 points and are -155 to win tonight. The Stars are 4-1 with 8 points to start the year and are a slight underdog to a team that’s 2-2.
Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Nashville Predators (Over 5.5 +105)
This pick is very much reliant on the Penguins getting an early lead and forcing the Preds to open up offensively. If the first period has no scoring or 1 goal, this pick is pretty much toast. But I like how the Penguins have found a rhythm in their last couple of games. Watch out for Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin because they’re starting to heat up.